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Hellacious Forecasts for Florence

Models are now predicting that Florence will threaten the U.S. East Coast as a major hurricane next week. We are still one week out. And should take any prediction at this time with a grain of salt. However, this is a concerning trend which we should continue to monitor.

Climate change factors discussed RE increasing U.S. East Coast hurricane risks include much warmer than normal sea surface temperatures, lifting of deflecting troughs to the north, and fixed Jet Stream ridge patterns that, when they prevail across the U.S. East, enhance the potential for land-falling storms.

(This is one of five video blogs covering climate change and clean energy posted today on my YouTube Channel. I will post a daily highlight of the feed here. In addition, I will post an in-depth climate change related blog here on a weekly basis as a new format. Warmest regards to all! — R)

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U.S. EV Sales Surge to New Record in August

Tesla Model 3 is driving a massive surge in U.S. electric vehicles sales. According to Inside EVs, Tesla Model 3 sales hit 17,800 during August in the U.S. Meanwhile total U.S. EV sales likely hit near 35,000.

Florence’s Rapid Intensification Surprises

An overview of present tropical cyclone activity over the U.S. and in the North Atlantic to include Gordon, Francis, and a tropical disturbance emerging from Africa. Both National Hurricane Center reports and larger climate change related factors are discussed.

Jebi — Worst Typhoon in 25 Years is Third Major Disaster to Strike Japan

The worst Typhoon in 25 years to strike Japan has forced 2 million to evacuate, injured at least 300, killed 9, and inflicted massive damage on the island nation. Jebi is the third major disaster to impact Japan during the Summer of 2018 — all of which have been influenced by human-caused climate change.

Miserably Hot in Mid-Atlantic? There’s a Reason for That.

High heat index values continued across parts of the Mid Atlantic today with heat index (feels like temperatures) above 100 for many locations. A front, fortunately, is expected to bring some relief by this weekend.

August Comes in as 4th Hottest on Record

According to global climate monitoring by Europe’s Copernicus, August of 2018 was the fourth hottest in the climate record.

NOAA — 70 Percent Chance of El Nino During NH Winter

An analysis of ENSO trends in which NOAA is indicating a 70 percent chance of El Nino this Winter. El Nino’s interaction with human-caused climate change is also discussed.

August Likely to Be Another Record Month for U.S. Electric Vehicle Sales

Inside EVs is predicting another record month for US EV sales in August even as the 300K annual rate falls into reach. Meanwhile Tesla production for Q3 is tracking for 70-80 K even as EV advances continue.

Storms Move Toward Hot Western North Atlantic

 

Models show a progression of storms heading toward the Western North Atlantic. This is a concern as sea surface temperatures off the U.S. East Coast are presently hot enough to sustain category 5 systems. It’s not usual for this region of ocean to be capable of sustaining such intense storms. But Human caused climate change appears to be enabling this extreme weather potential.

Gordon’s Rains Expected to Persist

An analysis of Tropical Storm Gordon’s potential impacts related to a fixed weather pattern over the Central U.S.

Analysis of Present Surface Methane Hot Spots

A contextual analysis of present surface methane emission sources and rates of atmospheric accumulation.

Jebi Threatens Japan with 170 Mph Winds

 

The most intense tropical cyclone of 2018 — Jebi — is churning through the Western Pacific. Japan is now in the bull’s eye of the projected path.

Wisconsin Hit Hard by Heavy Rain — More On the Way

Flood emergencies have been declared as parts of western and southern Wisconsin have been hit hard by rainfall totals ranging between 5 and 15 inches over the past week. The above analysis provides both weather and climate contexts for this event.

Cooperation with Nature — Caroline Casey Climate Chat

Please join Caroline Casey and I for a broad-ranging discussion of key climate change, clean energy and climate related actions.

California Has Already Cut Carbon Emissions to 1990s Levels

California has reduced its electrical power sector related carbon emissions by 35 percent — enabling it to achieve a goal set for 2020 early. Looking ahead, California will need to rely an synergies between batteries and clean energy both in power and transport as it moves to cut emission further.

Eastern Heatwave Blooms Amid Record Humidity

 

Heat index values near 107 F are blanketing parts of Virginia according to GFS models. In addition, the humidity record for Hartford has been shattered for summer of 2018 as much warmer than normal offshore waters pumped out a plume of moisture.

Models Continue to Point to Potential for Jump in Atlantic Storms

Models continue to identify numerous regions where tropical cyclones are more likely to form over the next 3-10 days. Multiple tropical waves are predicted to move off Africa. Meanwhile, potentials storm formation near Florida and in the eastern Gulf are indicated in some models. The above analysis includes climate change related features that may influence storm intensity.

Setback Initiative Puts Colorado Fracking Fight in the Hands of Voters

Advocates for keeping fossil fuels in the ground have gathered enough signatures to provide a ballot choice for voters to increase setbacks for oil derricks and fracking pads from 500 feet to 2,500 feet. This would likely result in a curtailment of Colorado oil and gas production. A major political battle is likely to ensue. The success of this initiative provides a window into the larger choices we face as human caused climate change impacts start to ramp up.

Heat Building Beneath the Sea Ice Hints at Tipping Points

A new study shows that the excess heat developed in newly ice free zones is being transported beneath the central ice. This heat is sequestered in a layer beneath the surface. But it contains enough energy to keep large regions of the Beaufort Sea ice free during most months if mixed, according to the new research.

Change in the Jet Stream Relieves West, Moves Heat East

A change in the persistent jet stream pattern that enhanced heatwave and fire intensity for the U.S. West is now providing relief. Meanwhile, a building ridge in the east has set the stage for potential record heat.

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