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The Hurricane Models are Starting to Get a Bit Wild

 

Forecast models are indicating that the North Atlantic is much more likely to produce storms as we move into September. In the above video blog, we provide an analysis of the underlying climate and climate change related conditions that may influence the intensity of storms that do form. Particularly those that do approach the United States.

 

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Climate Change Signal Detected in FL Governor’s Race

 

Climate change is a major issue that impacts us all. Increasingly, it is becoming a serious voting issue. Particularly for the residents of South Florida who stand to lose so much if climate impacts keep ramping up.

Aiming For 1.5 C Part II: This is Your Home

In achieving any kind of real progress toward an important end, it’s necessary to set goals that are difficult to attain. To aim further than you think you can go. And that’s even more important for a climate crisis that will produce catastrophic outcomes if we don’t set some very serious renewable energy, emissions reduction, and sustainability goals.

(This is your home.)

Because the important end that we are now trying to attain involves saving the future. Future prosperity, future vitality, future generations of human beings and living creatures. In the end it’s about the future of your home. For each 0.1 C of additional warming will bring with it more risk. More potential for increased harm.

It doesn’t matter if you live in Miami or Bangladesh. In Norfolk or Washington DC. In London or LA. In Calgary or Quebec. Where you live is where climate change is happening now. And where you live is where the future catastrophic impacts from climate change will be felt if we don’t do the necessary work.

In saying this, I can also say with confidence that we have a pathway out of this crisis. We have the renewable energy technology available now that is capable of replacing fossil fuel burning — so long as it is deployed on a mass scale. We have the ability to make our energy systems more efficient. We have the ability to change the way we manage lands and farms. And we can do all this — getting to net zero carbon emissions — without the kind of (post-Maria Puerto Rico-like) austerity invoking collapse of the global economy that the mongers of fear, uncertainty and doubt falsely say is necessary.

But to do this, to prevent catastrophe — not harm, because we are already going to see harm — we have to set our goals high. We have to try to achieve what might not be possible. And that’s why we aim for 1.5 C. Because this is your home. And we will employ every tool in our kit in our fight to save it.

Hat tip to Dr. Michael E Mann

Why We Need to Shoot for 1.5 C Even Though We Might Miss — Part 1

Each day, as individuals and as a global civilization, we decide how difficult our future will be. We do this, ultimately, by deciding whether we will burn fossil fuels, and whether or not we will emit carbon into the Earth’s atmosphere. The most liveable climate change scenario is the one where we emit the least carbon, where we first switch carbon emitting energy systems with renewables, and where we then learn how to draw carbon down from the atmosphere. In scientific parlance, this best case response to climate change is described as the RCP 2.6 emissions pathway.

(Shooting for 1.5 C Warming — Risk and Necessity.)

What is RCP 2.6? How do we define it?

We do this in many ways. By one measure, it roughly equates to an average of 490 ppm CO2 equivalent greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere over the course of the 21st Century. By another, it equals an added average radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere of 2.6 watts per meter squared. By another, it roughly equals 1.5 C warming by 2100.

In short, it’s the best case that we could rationally hope for. A much more liveable world. But it is also a long shot. A heavy lift. One that will require great courage, moral fiber, innovation, and effort if we are to have any hope of achieving it.

In order to have a shot at hitting RCP 2.6 we’ve got to, as a global civilization, achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050. What this means is that U.S. carbon emissions need to be net zero by 2035. And the world needs to quickly follow suit. That’s not going to be easy. But I think it’s doable, if we work hard and honestly and if we are lucky.

Ultimately, it’s something that we can’t not try to do and still be a good people. For in undertaking the path to 1.5 C we commit to the greatest rescue operation in the history of the planet and of humankind. And that’s what part 2 of this post series is about.

Hat tip to Greg

How Greenland Melt Can Kick off A Warm “Ill Wind” Near Antarctica

Sixteen thousand years ago, Greenland melt set off a cascade of impacts to the world ocean and atmosphere that led to the dredging of carbon rich waters from deep below the Pacific surface. These waters then disgorged enough carbon into the atmosphere to ultimately raise CO2 levels by 40 parts per million.

(Related: Bad Climate Wind Rises.)

A recent report in Nature Communications found that:

“During this earlier period, known as Heinrich stadial 1, atmospheric CO2 increased by a total of ~40ppm, Antarctic surface atmospheric temperatures increased by around 5°C and Southern Ocean temperatures increased by 3°C.”

How did it all happen? According to the science, Greenland melt slowed down North Atlantic Deep Water formation. This, in turn, caused the North Atlantic to cool and the South Atlantic to warm. The resulting change in temperature then shoved the band of stormy weather called the Inter-Tropical-Convergence-Zone southward. Subsequently, the westerlies in the Southern Hemisphere were shifted poleward and strengthened. Stronger, more southward running winds around the southern pole dredged up carbon rich deep water near the pole and on into the Pacific. This carbon then transferred to the atmosphere.

It’s an interesting bit of science. But it has a good degree of relevance to the present day. That’s because Greenland is again melting greater volumes of water into the North Atlantic. The North Atlantic is again cooling. And the Southern Ocean winds are again being driven south as they strengthen.

(How Greenland melt pulled carbon from the Southern Ocean. A process that is being driven to repeat by present human-forced climate change. Image source: Nature Communications.)

According to lead author Dr. Laurie Menviel:

“With this in mind, the contraction and strengthening of westerly winds today could have significant implications for atmospheric CO2 concentrations and our future climate.”

This is a kind of feedback that results from the warming humans have caused that can result in more carbon being wrung from the ocean. And it’s a concern because it shortens the available time-frame in which to respond to the crisis that is climate change.

(Greenland melt, the North Atlantic cool pool, and strengthening, southward moving Southern Ocean winds. These dynamics set off a carbon feedback about 16,000 years ago. Similar dynamics are coming into play today due to human caused climate change. Image source: Earth Nullschool.)

To be clear, present rates of fossil fuel burning are dumping an amount of carbon into the atmosphere at a much higher rate than this identified Earth System response could ever match. But, as the study authors note, the Southern Ocean has already sequestered 10 percent of carbon emitted by humans. If that sequestration halts and then reverses, then the rate of atmospheric CO2 accumulation, even if emissions stay stable, will rise by about 0.2 to 0.4 ppm per year.

This report lends further urgency to global efforts by responsible institutions and individuals to reduce global carbon emissions and transition to clean energy. Bringing the more difficult outcomes of rising heat trapping gasses closer and closer to the present day.

Please read more here.

Hat tip to mlp in NC.

Trump’s Hot Air vs Australia’s Solar Revolution

What’s the difference between bad (Trumpian) energy policy and good (clean energy based) energy policy? For Los Angeles and San Diego which both experienced an extreme, climate change driven, heatwave over the past week, about 4 degrees Fahrenheit.

In other words, fossil fuel burning under Trump policies would be of much greater magnitude and extend for far longer into the future. This would pump more heat trapping carbon into the atmosphere and ratchet global temperatures much higher.

According to a recent science-based article from Joe Romm at Think Progress, what it means is that the 110 to 120 degree (F) heatwaves of today, under Trumpian policy, will turn into the 131 degree heatwaves of tomorrow.

(Trump’s heatwaves vs Australia’s solar surge.)

In other words, it’s not a question of whether climate change will worsen. It will, at least for a while. It’s a question of how bad things will get. And from Obama to Trump we have a clear example and contrast between various helpful policies like increasing CAFE standards, the Sun Shot Initiative, the Clean Power Plan, and the Paris Climate Summit to various attempts to force people to buy coal, allowing the most toxic high emissions trucks on the road, putting up vast swaths of public lands for drilling, all while denying the scientifically proven existence of climate change and doing everything possible to roll back and withdraw from past positive policies.

One of these governments is clearly not like the other. And while we, as environmentalists and clean energy advocates could criticize individual climate policies for not going far enough, we must certainly concede that they were, on net, significantly helpful.

To this point, I’d like to call your attention to a recent spot-on statement by Dr Michael E. Mann:

And we are coming to realize how much more F’d we will be if we let those like Trump win out.

In the end, so much of the future of humankind is decided by international, national, state, and city government policy. If policies support a transition away from fossil fuel burning and toward a renewable energy based economy, then fossil fuel burning will halt more rapidly and warming will be reduced.

If, on the other hand, governments (like the one under Trump) fight to extend fossil fuel burning indefinitely into the future, to deny access to clean energy and to prevent the advance of efficiencies and energy savings, then warming will proceed very rapidly along what is known as a business as usual pathway. A pathway that is better described as the fast lane to increasingly hot and hellish conditions on Earth.

One future is probably survivable by human civilizations. The other future is very painful and difficult, calling prosperity and even habitability for large regions of the Earth’s surface into serious question.

(U.S. Heatwaves under some climate response [RCP 4.5] vs Trump policies leading to no climate response [RCP 8.5]. Image source: Think Progress and The National Climate Assessment.)

That other future is the one that pro fossil fuel governments like the Trump Administration are fighting for by trying to delay or deny access to renewable energy all while attempting to extend the burning of fossil fuels indefinitely.

So we are at a crossroads in more ways than one. But we should hold a measure of cautious optimism due to the fact that the economics of renewable energy are increasingly superior to those of ailing fossil fuels. And, in some cases, these economic conditions have been enough to overwhelm the negative, pro-fossil fuel policy stances of certain federal governments presently holding sway.

Take Australia, for example, which since 2013 has been headed by pro fossil fuel parties led by Tony Abbott and Malcolm Turnbull. These governments, holding thin majorities have done whatever they could to water down clean energy policies, reduce emissions cuts and support fossil fuels. During recent sessions, they have repeatedly attempted to send taxpayer money to coal facilities so that they will continue to operate (sound familiar, Rick Perry?).

But despite these efforts, solar energy is surging throughout Australia. Recent reports indicate that solar adoption rates will grow threefold in 2018 over the previous record year 2017. In total, Australia is on track to add about 4 gigawatts (GW) of solar to its present 7 GW total capacity.

(Major increase in clean solar adoption in Australia has primarily been driven by falling solar prices even as various Australian states continue to push hard for adoption despite the federal government’s fossil-fuel backing. Image source: Green Energy News and WA Today.)

What’s driving all this new solar? Well, for one many regions in Australia still incentivize solar. Meanwhile, some federal policies supporting solar still remain in place. But the one factor that has changed dramatically is that the cost of solar energy now out-competes practically every other major source in Australia. Panel prices are presently around 50 cents per watt down under and are falling to 40 cents per watt. This means that many customers can now recoup their investment in 3-5 years time. And with electricity prices running high, this is a really big incentive.

Solar possesses what is called a positive learning curve. What this means is that the more solar panels produced, the lower the future cost of solar panels. Both wind and batteries benefit from the same economies of scale. But if politicians like Trump increasingly use subsidies to prop up fossil fuels while fighting to kill off clean energy, then that horrible business as usual future that Joe Romm mentioned above is a very distinct possibility.

Or as Michael Mann put it — how F’d up do you want to see things get. From where I’m sitting, they’re already messed up enough.

Hat tip to Kassy

“Never Before Experienced” Rains Hammer Japan During Early July

“We’ve never experienced this kind of rain before. This is a situation of extreme danger.” — The Japan Meteorological Agency

*****

During recent days as much as 25 inches of rain has fallen over parts of Japan shattering previous all time precipitation records for parts of the island nation. The resulting floods have spurred a major emergency response by 54,000 personnel, taken the lives of more than 125 people, and forced more than 2.8 million to evacuate.

(Rising global surface temperatures increase atmospheric water vapor levels — providing liquid fuel that spikes the most powerful rainfall events to even greater extremes.)

On July 3, Typhoon Prapiroon swept over southwestern Japan bringing with it a spate of heavy rains. Over the following days, Prapiroon got caught up in stationary front even as a high pressure system to the east continued to circulate tropical moisture into the region. Beneath that eastern high, sea surface temperatures ranged between 2 and 3.5 degrees Celsius above normal. Meanwhile, warmer than normal ocean surfaces dominated a region east of the Philippines. These large, abnormally warm zones produced excess evaporation which helped to feed even more moisture into the region.

The result was a historic and devastating rain event for Japan. Isolated locations received more than 39 inches (1000 mm) of rain over a three day period. With one hour rainfall exceeding 3 inches in a number of locations. Motoyami received one day rains of 23 inches. With Mount Ontake seeing more than 25 inches over three days.

(Warmer than normal ocean surfaces, as shown in yellow and red in this sea surface temperature anomaly map, helped to fuel Japan’s recent extreme rainfall event. Image source: Earth Nullschool.)

Rising global temperatures increase overall atmospheric moisture loading by approximately 8 percent for each degree Celsius of global temperature increase. Water vapor provides fuel for storms both through enhancing convection and by engorging clouds with moisture. Recent scientific studies have found that climate change can greatly enhance the peak intensity of the most severe storms in this way. And the U.S. National Climate Assessment has identified a historical trend of increasing instances of heavy precipitation.

US EV Sales Likely Hit 26,000 in June

The big surge in electrical vehicle sales within the U.S., primarily driven by clean energy leader Tesla, continues.

According to reports from Inside EVs, total U.S. EV sales are likely to hit near 26,000 for the month of June. Such sales increases have primarily been driven by Tesla — which sold over 11,000 EVs in the U.S. for the month — representing nearly half (42 percent) of the entire U.S. market.

(Unpacking why EVs are so important to confronting climate change.)

Tesla’s dominance was spear headed by its Model 3 — which sold over 6,000 in June to the U.S. (and approximately 2,000 to Canada). Meanwhile, combined Model S and Model X sales were in excess of 5,000 in the U.S.

Other U.S. clean energy vehicle leaders for the month of June included Toyota Prius Prime (a plug in hybrid electrical vehicle), the Nissan Leaf, The Chevy Bolt and the Chevy Volt (plug in hybrid). In total, all of these four models combined represented less sales than Tesla — approximately  5,900 in total or about 55 percent of Tesla’s sales. Of these, only the Prius Prime cracked the 2,000 mark (see more here).

(U.S. EV sales are rapidly increasing in 2018. Image source: Inside EVs.)

Overall, it appears that U.S. EV sales are likely to hit near 400,000 on the back of Tesla’s rapid expansion in production rates. In addition, GM has recently acknowledged that it is unable to meet high demand for the Bolt in the U.S. and has stated that production lines are set to expand by 20 percent. Though this is unlikely to satiate rising EV demand, it will add to the widening trend of ramping clean energy sales here.

GM recently saw big Bolt sales gains in South Korea. And the company recently acknowledged that it is not doing enough to meet consumer’s clean energy needs in North America. Though a bump from 26,000 to approximately 31,000 Bolts sold from 2017 to 2018 is a drop in the bucked compared to the approx 100,000 or more new EVs Tesla will be adding by itself vs 2017 (100,000 total EVs in 2017 to approx 200,000 total in 2018).

(Tesla hits past 5,000 Model 3’s per week in late June and early July. Image source: Bloomberg.)

Looking ahead, Tesla appears set to sell well in excess of 10,000 Model 3s alone in the U.S. in July as weekly production rates surge. According to Bloomberg’s Model 3 Tracker (image above), the company has sky-rocketed weekly Model 3 production rates to above 5,000 during late June and early July. And while some wag is likely between the mid 2,000s to mid 5,000s as Tesla continues to work on its lines, the company is on a clear path for increased production — aiming at another surge to 6,000 per week by August.

Three Hundred Foot Tall ‘Fire Tsunami’ Burns Through Colorado

A massive 100,000 acre blaze has hurled off 300 foot high walls of fire that local authorities are describing as a ‘fire tsunami.’

The Spring Creek Fire, now the third largest in the Colorado state record, has forced more than 2,000 people to evacuate, destroyed or damaged 200 homes, and drawn the emergency response of 1,000 firefighters.

(Explosive Spring Creek Fire reaches 300 feet in height — forcing hundreds to flee.)

According to public information officer Ben Brack, firefighters were dealing with:

“unprecedented fire behavior. Because the fire has been moving so fast we don’t know exactly how big it has become. It was a perfect firestorm. This is a national disaster at this time. You can imagine standing in front of a tsunami or tornado and trying to stop it from destroying homes. A human response is ineffective.”

Thankfully, and due in large part to heroic efforts by firefighters and emergency responders to evacuate those in the fire’s path, no reports of loss of life have yet been received. Overnight rainfall on the 5th to 6th of July has also given firefighters an opportunity to respond. And now this enormous blaze is 35 percent contained. However, the explosive, lumbering fire is still a serious threat to the region.

Spring Creek Fire burn scar

(NASA satellite image of the Spring Creek Fire burn scar.)

Across the west, fully 60 large fires are now burning across the U.S. from Alaska to the Southeast. But the most intense fires are occurring in the west. These fires are sparking as record heat and severe drought conditions strike the west. And, presently, over 2,900,000 acres have burned on U.S. soil.

Heat is a primary enabler of wildfires. And with temperatures rising due to human-caused climate change, the western wildfire season has grown from 5 months in the 1970s to more than 7 months today. In some locations, like Southern California, the fire season is now year-round. In addition, the size of fires out west is increasing. So long as human fossil fuel burning and related carbon emissions continue, the western fire situation will worsen. With burn areas projected to increase by as much as 650 percent for some regions.

UPDATED

Hurricane Beryl an Odd Outlier as Cat 5 Maria Tears Toward China

The 2018 Atlantic hurricane season has produced another record after a string of similar strange climate change related excursions during recent years. Meanwhile, at powerful Category 5 storm has formed in the Pacific.

(Mid Ocean Season starts early with Beryl; Pacific cat 5 Maria tracks toward China.)

Beryl, a minimal category 1 storm formed in the tropical convergence zone between Africa and the Caribbean on July 6. According to Brian McNoldy, Beryl is the furthest east-forming pre-August storm on record by a wide margin. With Dorothy being the previous record-holder for earliest storm to form in this region on July 24.

An August-Type Storm in July

The height of the Atlantic hurricane season is known as the Cape Verde Season. During this time, massive clusters of thunderstorms called tropical waves develop over Africa and head out into the tropical North Atlantic. There, they feed on warm sea surfaces and favorable atmospheric conditions — forming into tropical cyclones at a much higher rate than during the rest of the year.

Cape Verde storms typically begin forming in August. And though July does see an increase in tropical wave generation from Africa that can fuel storm formation in the Caribbean and just off the Windward and Leeward Islands in the North Atlantic, we don’t typically see mid ocean forming storms until August.

The odd thing about Beryl is it is acting a lot like an August Cape Verde storm — but a month earlier than is typical. Factors that possibly contributed to Beryl’s early formation include climate change driven warmer than normal sea surfaces in the region, strong clusters of thunderstorms developing over Africa and heading out into the Atlantic at a high rate, and a post-La Nina atmospheric influence that tends to increase the frequency of Atlantic storm formation.

Cat 5 Maria Heading Toward China

Moving over to the western Pacific, we find a very powerful category 5 storm — Maria — moving slowly toward China. Yesterday the storm achieved the highest intensity rating we give for hurricanes as maximum sustained winds surged to 161 mph. The storm has since backed off a bit to just stronger than 155 mph maximum winds. However, it is still a very dangerous system.

Like Beryl, Maria formed over warmer than normal sea surface temperatures — a climate change related factor that provides more fuel for storms. Maria is now tracking off to the north and west. It is expected to cross somewhat cooler waters before heading back into warmer than normal waters off Shanghai. It is thus likely that Maria will see fluctuations in strength as it approaches the China mainland over the coming week.

Overall, climate change’s influence on tropical cyclones is that a human-warmed climate is increasing the peak intensity of the most powerful storms. In addition, alterations in ocean heat and energy balance is moving the zones and changing the times during which storms form. We are thus seeing storms that form out of season and outside of typical climate zones. These shifts and these increases in peak intensity will continue so long as fossil fuel burning and related carbon emissions do not abate.

Temp Records Shattered Across Northern Hemisphere; 33 Lives Lost to Heat in Quebec

Over the past week, 21 all-time temperature records were shattered across the Northern Hemisphere. These records coincide with an extreme heatwave blanketing large parts of Europe, North America, Africa, the Middle East and Asia. A heatwave that has resulted in the tragic loss of 33 lives in Quebec.

(Global heatwave in context.)

According to news reports, major temperature records in this broad ranging swath of heat included a 105 F (40.5 C) reading in Denver, a scorching 122.4 F (50.2 C) temperature in Pakistan, a ridiculous 97.9 F (36.6 C) reading in Montreal, and a 91.8 F (33.2 C) reading in Motherwell Scotland of all places (see graphic here).

In Quebec, safety officials were inundated with 1,200 calls per day due to heat stress and heat injury. Emergency crews were at the ready with 3,400 house visits conducted each day. Despite the high state of readiness, 33 people so far are reported to have lost their lives — primarily middle aged to elderly males. High heat, high humidity, and lack of residential cooling all contributed to heat injuries and loss of life over this typically much cooler region.

In context, a total of 23 all time record high maximum and record high minimum temperatures have been produced as a result of the present heatwave during the past 7 days. This compares to zero all time record low maximum and zero record low minimum temperatures over the same time period. Daily and monthly record highs and record high minimum temperatures are outpacing record low temperatures on a global basis at a rate of 4-12 to 1.

Global warming due to fossil fuel burning has put us in a 115,000 year heatwave on a whole Earth system based context. So we can continue to expect record high temperatures to be breached at higher rates.

(Very high incidence of all time record hot temperatures over the past 7 days. Image source: NOAA.)

According to GFS model forecasts, extreme heat is expected to continue to impact of number of Northern Hemisphere regions over the coming days. Though the North American East may see a respite from the heat over the 1-5 day horizon, high temperatures are expected to continue to hammer western and central zones. Northeast Siberia is predicted to see extreme heat early on, which is then expected to shift west into Eastern Siberia and Scandinavia. Meanwhile, the Middle East, North Africa, and parts of Central Asia are predicted to continue to experience much hotter than normal summer temperatures.

 

 

Global EV Sales Jumped by 75% in May

A clean energy production surge continues in transportation as global EV sales in May jumped by 75 percent from around 92,000 during 2017 to approximately 159,000 in 2018.

The big surge was led by major production increases from Tesla, BYD, and BAIC, with BMW and Volkswagen running close behind.

(Global EV production appears to be on track for between 1.8 and 2 million by end of 2018 led by Tesla, BYD, and BAIC.)

The large increase in EV interest comes as nations, states and cities move to address a combination of issues including bad air quality due to fossil fuel based vehicle use and increasing impacts from human caused climate change. Numerous cities set about to restrict or ban fossil fuel vehicle use to improve local health by reducing particulate emission and/or due concerns about threats to cities emerging from human caused climate change.

In addition, major state and national policies like those coming from China and California are incentivizing EV purchases even as more attractive and capable EV models are hitting the roads. The result is a kind of perfect storm for EV adoption expansion despite a wide-ranging misinformation campaign against EVs and EV leaders like Tesla spear-headed by the fossil fuel industry.

Overall, between 1.8 and 2 million EVs are likely to hit the roads in 2018. A number which appears set to double through 2020 as traditional automakers race to catch up to the likes of Tesla and the Chinese. As an example, 7 percent of BMW vehicles sold are now electric. A portion that is likely to rapidly expand over the next couple of years as the former all ICE manufacturer tries to fight off major competition from Tesla and others.

Tesla Achieves Model 3 Production Goals

Tesla achieved a major surge in clean energy vehicle production during the second quarter of 2018.

According to reports from Tesla, the all renewable energy corporation produced a whopping 53,339 electrical vehicles during Q2. Of these, 24,751 were Model S and X. Meanwhile, Tesla produced an amazing 28,578 Model 3s.

Overall, this is almost double the 25,708 EVs produced during Q2 of 2017. A very impressive jump that included Tesla exceeding 5,000 Model 3s produced during the final week of June with a total weekly EV production rate of nearly 7,000 (see below).

(Tesla hits clean energy vehicle production milestones during Q2 of 2018.)

These are huge numbers for Tesla — showing that the company is achieving its goal of mass produced clean energy automobiles. A feat that is even now setting off shock-waves through the global auto market (and a major smear and fear campaign at the hands of pro-fossil fuel Tesla shorts).

Tesla appears to be well on its way to hitting around 200,000 EVs produced by the end of 2018 — with 88,000 coming out of Tesla’s factories in the first half of the year. If present trends hold, it appears that Tesla will hit between 60,000 and 75,000 EVs during Q3, with still more on the way during Q4.

(Tesla crushes Q2 production during big Model 3 surge. Image source: Inside EVs.)

Such high rates of production from Tesla’s multiple vehicle lines are now likely to enable Tesla to begin leveraging economies of scale to increase cash influx. Setting up Tesla’s planned profitability during the second half of the year. Meanwhile, Tesla revenues continue to rapidly grow. All good news.

I’ve said it before here, but I’ll say it again. Tesla’s success is critical to the clean energy revolution. It is the only major all-clean energy automaker in the West. One that is leveraging a combination of 100 percent renewable energy technologies — solar, batteries, and EVs — to rapidly and competitively move into markets traditionally dominated by fossil fuel based industries. And it is this kind of direct replacement of fossil fuels with renewables that will enable rapid global carbon emissions reduction and movement away from a future blighted by catastrophic climate change.

(Tesla team celebrates its achievement of 5,000 Model 3s produced within one week. Image source: Tesla.)

 

Full Tesla press release follows:

PALO ALTO, Calif., July 02, 2018 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — In the last seven days of Q2, Tesla produced 5,031 Model 3 and 1,913 Model S and X vehicles.

Q2 production totaled 53,339 vehicles, a 55% increase from Q1, making it the most productive quarter in Tesla history by far. For the first time, Model 3 production (28,578) exceeded combined Model S and X production (24,761), and we produced almost three times the amount of Model 3s than we did in Q1. Our Model 3 weekly production rate also more than doubled during the quarter, and we did so without compromising quality.

GA4, our new General Assembly line for Model 3, was responsible for roughly 20% of Model 3s produced last week, with quality from that line being as good as our regular GA3 line. We expect that GA3 alone can reach a production rate of 5,000 Model 3s per week soon, but GA4 helped to get us there faster and will also help to exceed that rate.

Tesla expects to increase production to 6,000 Model 3s per week by late next month. We also reaffirm our guidance for positive GAAP net income and cash flow in Q3 and Q4, despite negative pressures from a weaker USD and likely higher tariffs for vehicles imported into China as well as components procured from China.

Q2 deliveries totaled 40,740 vehicles, of which 18,440 were Model 3, 10,930 were Model S, and 11,370 were Model X. Model S and X deliveries are in line with our guidance provided on May 3. As we previously noted, we are in the process of changing the quarterly production pattern of those vehicles for the various worldwide regions to ensure a more linear flow of deliveries through the quarter. Both orders and deliveries for Model S and X were higher in Q2 than a year ago. Our overall target for 100,000 Model S and Model X deliveries in 2018 is unchanged.

11,166 Model 3 vehicles and 3,892 Model S and X vehicles were in transit to customers at the end of Q2, and will be delivered in early Q3. The high number of customer vehicles in transit for Model 3 was primarily due to a significant increase in production towards the end of the quarter.

The remaining net Model 3 reservations count at the end of Q2 still stood at roughly 420,000 even though we have now delivered 28,386 Model 3 vehicles to date. When we start to provide customers an opportunity to see and test drive the car at their local store, we expect that our orders will grow faster than our production rate. Model 3 Dual Motor All Wheel Drive and Model 3 Dual Motor All Wheel Drive Performance cars will also be available in our stores shortly.

The last 12 months were some of the most difficult in Tesla’s history, and we are incredibly proud of the whole Tesla team for achieving the 5,000 unit Model 3 production rate. It was not easy, but it was definitely worth it.

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Our delivery count should be viewed as slightly conservative, as we only count a car as delivered if it is transferred to the customer and all paperwork is correct. Final numbers could vary by up to 0.5%. Tesla vehicle deliveries represent only one measure of the company’s financial performance and should not be relied on as an indicator of quarterly financial results, which depend on a variety of factors, including the cost of sales, foreign exchange movements and mix of directly leased vehicles.

Forward-Looking Statements
Certain statements herein, including statements regarding future production and delivery of Model S, Model X and Model 3, expected cash flow and net income results, and growth in demand for our vehicles, are “forward-looking statements” that are subject to risks and uncertainties. These forward-looking statements are based on management’s current expectations. Various important factors could cause actual results to differ materially, including the risks identified in our SEC filings. Tesla disclaims any obligation to update this information.

 

 

Amidst Supreme Court Nightmare, We Should Recognize that the Road Toward Climate Justice Will Be Long and Arduous

“There is a nation, which in all its strength and virtue is in the grips of a group of ruthless men, preaching a gospel of intolerance and racial pride –unrestrained by law, by parliament, or by public opinion…” — Winston Churchill, 1934

Let us pray that we do not become such a nation. That we retain the resolve to resist authoritarianism, bigotry, and oppression of the weak, the helpless, minorities, women, and those in dire need of our aid. That we hold fast the will to keep fighting for a world capable of supporting the rich array of life that gives us life in turn.

(Climate justice at stake.)

Late Yesterday, Justice Anthony Kennedy, in failing to stand up to an increasingly authoritarian and abusive Trump Administration, decided to resign early. In doing so, he opened his lynch-pin moderate Supreme Court seat to a far more conservative replacement.

This is not to say that Justice Kennedy was a great champion of social virtue, freedom and justice. He has sided in the past with harmful corporate interests — as in the case of Citizen’s United and in the recent JANUS decision. His role in Bush v Gore sent a chill through our democracy.

But many freedoms and human rights for women, the incarcerated, those of varying sexual preference now hang in an increasingly tilted political balance. Meanwhile, burgeoning environmental issues such as the EPA’s authority to regulate carbon, and the potential liability of fossil fuel companies who have misinformed the public thereby risking vast damage from climate change, are now also at risk. For Kennedy has long stood as a back-stop preventing the erosion of key human rights and in at least moderately enabling government to respond to climate change related threats.

We should, perhaps, not be surprised. The republicans after all — through their vicious media campaigns, through their warping of the web, through Gerrymandering and voter suppression, and, yes, through collusion with hostile foreign powers — have taken both Houses of Congress and the Presidency combined. They have, through Trump, through Senate leadership, and through House leadership, eroded and removed practically all norms that would check a party in power. They are, in other words, clearing a way for the unjust application of a brutal authority. A brutality that most recently manifest in the cruel separation of children from parents seeking asylum at the border.

Many had hoped that Justice Anthony Kennedy would hang on — at least as a moderate check to the increasing totality of right wing power. He has not. So here we are — faced with the possibility that a majority of Supreme Court Justices will side with burgeoning authoritarianism. That the great progress that we have gained in the last Century might be snuffed out in this one. That the hope of responses to a darkening climate future might be smothered under a choking smog of denial.

We can say *might* because not all is yet lost. You and I still have a voice and a vote. We still have the ability to resist and to fight — if we retain the will. For we may yet rattle and over-top the halls of this newly minted unjust power. We may yet defeat the enablers of harm in the coming difficult electoral battle of November of 2018. But we only hold that chance if we retain the will. If we allow that noble fire in the belly to continue to burn.

To this we must say that our generations have grown soft after an age of good fortune. We have not been tested. We have not been honed. Many of us are soft and weak. And seeing a future difficulty it is our tendency to say — ‘no-way, it is too much!’

No more. We must recognize that the future is hard. The present problems we face at home — even moreso. That the dragons and monsters we must defeat are legion.

But with our backs against the wall we are left with these two choices — fight, or give up and be devoured. And we will fight. Because that is who we are as Americans. A people who believe that a better tomorrow can be made for all, and who for centuries have been willing to do the good work of progress. A nation forged in the fight against unjust authoritarian rule.

It is time to heed the call again. To become our better, more virtuous angels. In this we are now left with no choice.

Western Heat Predicted to Move East

The extreme heat that is helping to fan severe western wildfires from California to Alaska is predicted to move eastward over the coming days. This shift is expected to set off high temperatures in the 90s and 100s from the Gulf Coast all the way to the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. Heat Index values, meanwhile, are predicted to spike into the 100s and 110s from the Mississippi Valley north and eastward.

(Much warmer than normal temperatures spread from west to east across the U.S.)

These much warmer than normal temperatures and potentially dangerous heat index values occur in a context of larger national and global warming. May of 2018 was the hottest on record according to NOAA. The U.S. presently sits between two warmer to much warmer than normal ocean zones. And overall global temperatures have been rising since the 1900s, with a more rapid up-ramp occurring since the late 1990s.

For the Central and Eastern U.S., warmer than normal oceans are also spiking atmospheric moisture levels through increased rates of evaporation. These higher moisture levels will be contributing to predicted heat indexes where large regions are expected to experience temperatures that feel like the 100s or 110s (see image below).

(Heat index values are predicted to rise to between 40 and 45 C for large parts of the Central and Eastern U.S. The 44 C predicted heat index for parts of Western New York on July 1 corresponds to a 111 F ‘feels like’ condition for this Northeastern region. Such high heat index values present a heightened risk of heat injury due to long term exposure. Image source: Earth Nullschool.)

Combined high heat and humidity increase the risk of heat injury due to exposure. And rising heat indexes and wet bulb temperatures are just one of the many potentially harmful aspects of human caused climate change.

From Inverse:

In the future, parts of the world will become so hot and humid that healthy adults sitting in the shade will die within a matter of hours. It’s hard to imagine, and yet that’s where Earth’s climate is headed, perhaps sooner than expected.

But while many recent studies have rightly focused on physical human limits under high wet bulb temperature risks for parts of South Asia and the Middle East, the Central to Eastern U.S. is also a region of concern. Climate risks to this region of the U.S. are due to both high predicted temperatures and high moisture levels from increasingly warm Gulf and Atlantic Ocean surfaces. The result is that heat capable of resulting in rapid heat injury or even loss of life, with wet bulb temperatures above 35 C, is possible by mid-to-late Century under high fossil fuel burning scenarios.

(At 10 C global warming, large regions of the world are regularly predicted to experience temperatures above 35 C Wet Bulb readings — or a level at which the human body is not naturally capable of cooling itself. Of course, such dangerous Wet Bulb readings are possible under still lower levels of global warming. Note that the Central to Eastern U.S. is one of the indicated hot spots from this recent paper.)

Though the Eastern U.S. is not yet facing extreme wet bulb readings of this kind, temperatures and humidity levels are presently on the rise. So the predicted heat wave is still expected to pack a punch. And perhaps a bit more than we’re used to.

We’re looking at a predicted extended period of significant above normal temperatures and high humidity over the coming days. So the public should stay tuned to local media for heat advisories issued by the National Weather Service (see heat safety tips here) and do what they can to keep cool by drinking water frequently and by spending less time exposed to blazing temperatures and sweltering humidity.

Pawnee Fire Forces Another State of Emergency for Northern California

Human-forced climate change is driving severe events that local communities are having difficulty recovering from. The primary reason is that the tempo of these events is so high that it allows little time for recovery.

(Another series of intense wildfires, another state of emergency for California.)

This weekend, a large complex of fires erupted in the Lake County region of Northern California. By today, the fires had expanded to cover over 10,500 acres. The rapidly expanding fire has already destroyed more than 22 buildings while forcing 3,000 to flee. Meanwhile, Governor Jerry Brown had declared a state of emergency.

Hot and dry conditions fanned the blazes on Tuesday, increasing concerns that the fires would continue to rapidly spread. Temperatures in Fresno are expected to hit 100 degrees (F) today with readings in Redding likely to hit near the century mark. Meanwhile, a large zone from Death Valley to Vegas to Phoenix is predicted to see temperatures hit 108 to 114 (F) or above.

(Very hot conditions across California are presently elevating fire risk. Already, large blazes have burned numerous buildings and forced hundreds to flee. Image source: National Weather Service.)

These hot, windy conditions will continue to elevate fire hazards across the west — which is bad news for communities beleaguered by the ongoing spate.

During recent years, big swings between heavy precipitation events and hot, dry conditions have fueled larger, more intense wildfires across the U.S. West and particularly in Northern California. Human caused climate change drives these events by adding moisture to the atmosphere which favors heavier storms and by forcing temperatures higher. The result is that vegetation grows and blooms more rapidly during the wetter than normal periods and dries out faster during the hotter than normal periods — generating more dry fuel for wildfires.

 

 

 

Tesla’s Mass Clean Energy Production as Response to Climate Change Surges in June

Surging wind, solar, electrical vehicle and battery storage production provide the world with the opportunity to start reducing annual carbon emissions in the near term. And one clean energy leader appears set to break new ground toward achieving that helpful goal.

(Tesla appears set to achieve goals, squeeze shorts, and help make clean energy more accessible for everyone.)

According to recent reports from Electrek, a Tesla employee recently leaked that Gigafactory battery pack production for the Model 3 has averaged 5,000 per week during June. If true, it shows that one key portion of the Tesla Model 3 line is humming along at a very strong rate of production commensurate with the company’s sky-high goals.

In addition, we have recently discovered that Tesla has not one, not two, but three production lines running for the Model 3 at its Fremont factory. During April and May Tesla constructed a second production line. And by late May these two lines surged to 3,500 Model 3 per week production.

(Tesla has constructed a massive semi-permanent structure to house a third Model 3 line in an effort to hit 5,000 vehicles per week. This line appeared in a very short period of time and shows that Tesla may indeed be capable of very rapid jumps in the number of electrical vehicles it produces. Image source: Teslarati.)

Meanwhile, during June, reports emerged that a hard-shell semi-permanent shelter had been erected to house a third Model 3 production line at the Fremont factory site. This third line is dedicated to producing dual-motor and performance versions of the EV — which are now officially on offer.

Overall, it appears that the clean energy company likely produced between 25,000 and 30,000 Model 3s during Q2. With total EV production including Model S and X in the range of 45,000 to 55,000. By comparison, Tesla produced approximately 100,000 EVs during 2017. So they are on track to at least double clean energy vehicle production during 2018.

(Indicators point to between 25,000 and 30,000 total Model 3s produced during Q2 — a massive surge over Q1. Image source: Bloomberg.)

This big surge reminds me a bit of the mass production effort that occurred in response to Axis power aggression during World War II. Although, the present clean energy production wave is in response to a serious and ramping climate threat posed by fossil fuel burning. A response that is peaceful, global, and occurring both in a chiefly capitalistic fashion (for Musk and Tesla) and in a socialistic (market-command) fashion for countries like China.

In the end, what’s most important is that a clean energy transition happens, not which political or ideological forces are engaged to achieve it. And what we see now is a mix of society-enhancing policy coming from a variety of cities and states with various market responses. In fact, it is this kind of mixed response that provides the most healthy and broadest-based solutions to the threat of human-caused climate change. So we welcome it in all its various forms.

How Arctic Sea Ice Loss Could Make the Hot Pacific Blob Permanent 

From the North Pacific to the tropics, loss of sea ice will result in a vastly heated Pacific Ocean in which events like the recent Hot Blob become far more common. Those were the conclusions of a new model study conducted by Wang, Deser, Sun and Tomas and recently published in Geophysical Research Letters.

(Understanding how sea ice loss in the Arctic can result in large-scale Pacific warming.)

An ocean heating event called the Blob resulted in mass loss of sea life during the period of 2013-2014. It was associated with a towering high pressure ridge in which the upper level winds ran far to the north and into the Arctic. Beneath the ridge, temperatures both at the land and ocean surface grew to be much warmer than normal.

Though viewed as a fluke by some, many began to draw connections between the powerful ridge feature, the related Pacific warming, and sea ice loss in the Arctic. Now, a new scientific study using climate models has produced some rather telling findings. First, the study found that Arctic sea ice loss results in large scale Pacific Ocean warming within just 10-20 years of widespread Arctic Ocean ice reductions. Second, the study models indicated that warming occurred first and strongest in the North Pacific, but then rapidly translated toward the Equator.

(Sea surface temperatures across the North Pacific were much warmer than normal during the hot Blob event of 2013-2014. A new model study finds that sea ice loss will make such extreme events common.)

The reason for this change in planetary and Pacific Ocean energy balance is scientifically described as a teleconnection. In very basic terms, loss of sea ice at the Arctic Ocean surface produces changes in local wind patterns that ripple through the global atmosphere. After a rather short period of time, wind patterns in the upper levels of the atmosphere and at the surface in the Pacific Ocean become involved.

Winds are often the vehicle by which energy is transferred throughout the atmosphere and at the surface. So a change in winds, from the top of the atmosphere to the bottom, can swiftly translate to a change in surface temperatures.

(A new model study shows radical changes in Pacific sea surface temperatures in response to Arctic Ocean sea ice loss.)

Looking at the study, it appears more likely now that the Northern Pacific Hot Blob of 2013-2014 was not a fluke, but instead an early knock-on effect of Arctic sea ice loss. A kind of event that will tend to become commonplace as the Arctic Ocean ice continues to melt. And that eventually, sooner rather than later, the heat build-up in the North Pacific will translate south to the Equator. First warming the Eastern Pacific in a more persistent El Nino type pattern and then spreading west (see image above).

As with the Blob, everything from the health of sea life to the intensity of extreme weather would be substantially impacted by such large scale changes. In other words, it looks like large scale losses of Arctic sea ice are enough to affect a broad and disruptive change in the global climate regime.

Southeast Texas Hammered by 15+ Inches of Rain

It doesn’t take a hurricane or tropical storm to dump massive amounts of rain on southeast Texas these days. Just a wave of tropical moisture from an ocean warmed by human-caused climate change.

(Not a hurricane, but southeast Texas may see 20 inches or more of rain this week.)

Over the past few days, a massive surge of moisture has flowed off the warmer than normal waters of the Gulf of Mexico. This moisture has interacted with a trough dipping down over the Central U.S. to produce prodigious amounts of rainfall. And ever since late Sunday powerful thunderstorms have been firing across the Texas coast.

As of this morning, according to reports from The National Weather Service, between 5 and 15 inches of rainfall had inundated a vast swath stretching from the Texas-Mexico border northward to a Houston area still recovering from Hurricane Harvey’s historic floods. These heavy rains, producing amounts typically seen from a substantial tropical cyclone, have generated major flooding and flash flood warnings across the region. As the waters rise, residents have become justifiably concerned about personal safety and damage to property.

NOAA forecasts indicate that storms expected to continue firing through Thursday, with between 2 and 7 inches of additional rainfall possible. It is worth noting that atmospheric moisture levels over the region are very high. So predicted rainfall totals may be exceeded.

(As of 7 AM, more than 15 inches of rain had fallen over parts of southeast Texas in association with a persistent upper level low and related severe thunderstorms. Heavy rains have continued to fall throughout the day and aren’t expected to abate until at least Thursday. Image source: The National Weather Service.)

During recent years, increased global temperatures have generated more extreme rainfall events for places like southeastern Texas. Warmer ocean surfaces — like those in the heating Gulf of Mexico — evaporate more moisture into the atmosphere. And this moisture generates more fuel for storms — greatly increasing the peak rainfall potential of the most intense storms.

Last year, southeast Texas faced inundation from a number of severe events. A sequence that was capped off by the record-shattering Hurricane Harvey — which tied Katrina as the costliest U.S. storm on record and dumped more than 60 inches of rainfall over parts of the state. Though the present storm event is not likely to reach Harvey levels of extremity, it is a stark reminder that we have entered a new climate and extreme weather regime. One that will continue to worsen so long as we keep burning fossil fuels and forcing global temperatures to rise.

NASA: May Was 4th Hottest on Record

According to reports from NASA GISS, May of 2018 was the 4th hottest in the 138 year global temperature record. This new warmth came as the Equatorial Pacific began to retreat from a cooling La Nina state — which, all things being equal, would have resulted in somewhat cooler than average global temperatures.

(Analysis of global temperature trends based on recent NASA and NOAA reports.)

But all things are not equal. Greenhouse gasses in the range of 410 ppm CO2 and 493 ppm CO2e have created a historically unprecedented heat forcing within the Earth’s atmosphere. As a result, recent global temperatures have consistently exceeded 1 C above 1880s levels and have hit as high as 1.5 C above 1880s levels on a monthly basis and 1.2 C above those levels on an annual basis.

For this May, temperatures were about 0.82 C above NASA’s 20th Century baseline or about 1.04 C above 1880s levels. This was the fourth hottest May in the global climate record despite La Nina influences continuing to maintain hold over the global climate system.

(NASA global anomalies map shows distribution of warmer than normal [yellow to red] and cooler than normal [blue to purple] temperatures across the globe. Note that warmer than normal conditions dominated.)

Overall, the greatest above average temperatures were experienced in the regions of Scandinavia and Antarctica — from an anomaly perspective. Meanwhile, significant trough zones generated counter-trend cool temperatures near Eastern Canada, over the North Atlantic south of Greenland, and across Central Siberia. As we moved into June, some of these zones have shifted or moderated, with cooler air tending to shift closer to eastern Europe in Asia and toward the North Atlantic cool water zone (due to melting Greenland ice) from Eastern Canada.

Looking ahead, NOAA is forecasting a 65 percent chance for a return to El Nino conditions in the Equatorial Pacific by winter of 2018-2019. With atmospheric CO2 hitting near 410 ppm and overall greenhouse gas levels hitting near 493 ppm CO2e, this switch to the warm side of natural variability will again bring with it the risk of record hot global temperatures, should the NOAA forecast bear out. Though we should be clear that El Nino is merely a short term aspect of natural variability that is riding over the long term warming trend generated by human produced greenhouse gas emissions, particularly CO2 emissions from fossil fuel burning.

 

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