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Growth Shock and How the Gods of Our Greed Continue to Fail Us

Number_of_Planet_Scenarios_2008

(Number of Planet Scenarios as Calculated by the World Foot Print Network. Note that according to current data, our pace of consumption currently overshoots Earth’s sustainable resource base by about 50% requiring about 1.5 Earths to meet our needs. By 2050, consumption will nearly demand the yearly productivity of three Earths. Overshoot causes irreparable harm to resources and ecosystems resulting in a collapse of the resource base. See image below.)

We are living in the age of limits, the age of consequences, the age when our quest for an endless expansion of the production of goods and services and the resulting endless concentration of wealth under pure capitalism has resulted in ever more intense degrees of Growth Shock even as it risks a devastating collapse of current day industrial civilizations.

It is a world where Western governments run by ultra-conservative political servants of the oil and gas industry engage in scientific book burning, as recently happened in Canada. A world where 85 people own more wealth than 3.5 billion of their fellow human beings. A world where it is possible for one individual to consume the same amount of resources as hundreds of thousands of his fellows.

In this world, hydrogen sulfide gas is building up in the deep ocean, a bleeding Earth is contributing its own increasing volumes of methane and CO2 to a human-caused global warming nightmare, a world where CO2 levels have passed 400 parts per million, a level not seen in 4.5 million years.

We live in a place where rock stars like Neil Young join with indigenous peoples and environmentalists in a rebellion against the fossil fuel giants who rule so much of our planet and who seek to enforce continued and increasing consumption of dirty, dangerous and depleting fossil fuels. A place where climate scientists are forced to become political activists, to risk prison sentences, to have any hope of keeping a shred of the bounty of Earth safe for their grandchildren. A world where bloggers and activists are increasingly threatened and imprisoned for expressing their previously inalienable right of free political speech.

We live in a world that is an ongoing and intensifying wreckage. A calamity caused by our worship of the failed gods of our greed, a disaster born of our turning away from our fellow man, of our loss of faith in our ability to work together through rational and representative governments, and of our dramatic failure to impose limits — both upon ourselves and upon the most criminally greedy among us.

We are living in the age of Growth Shock and on this unsustainable path the days of human civilization upon this Earth are numbered. There are no second or third Earths to which we can extend our madness that is an economic system designed to endlessly increase consumption of finite resources. There are no green fields of Mars or Venus for us to plunder. The worlds within our reach are barren and as far as even our great telescopic eyes can see across the vast expanse of space there is nothing, nothing even within an insurmountable gulf of light years, of which we could even have cause to dream of to slake our boundless want.

No. We are here. And of all the worlds within our reach fair Earth is Alone. And so we must set our task to live within our means here. To find ways to be happy that do not involve an attempt at endless, mad, and harmful expansion. That do not involve an attempt at burning all the fossil fuels and rapidly ruining our atmosphere and climate for ages and ages to come. Ours is the terrible and hopeful task of the Easter Islanders, of the residents of Tikopia — one group who succeeded in living happily and sustainably upon an island world of limited resources, and the other who desperately and miserably failed.

Our choices are as essential as they are dire and we are making them now, mostly for ill.

Environmentalists get it. Ecologists get it. Anthropologists get it. Druids get it. Scientists get it. Everyday people slaving away under minimum wage or worse get it. Those who live in the shanty towns get it. Those who live down wind of a coal plant get it. Those in West Virginia who had their water ruined get it. Those who live in fracking towns where their water is at risk or must be pumped in get it. Those in British Columbia protesting tar sands pipeline expansion get it. Some in the drying, burning west get it. Some in the storm-wracked east get it. The middle class of America who has been scape-goated and sacrificed on the alter of billionaire greed for the past 30 years should have gotten it by now. Muslims in the middle east who would have rather found water than oil get it. Christian monks who construct solar panel farms get it. South Pacific Islanders witnessing their nations being devoured by the waves get it. So many more who have been forgotten, abused, or who remain unnamed get it.

And now, an economic historian, who clearly gets it, has broken ranks from the mainstream to pen the extraordinarily brave and insightful work: Green Capitalism, the God that Failed. Consider:

We can’t shop our way to sustainability because the problems we face cannot be solved by individual choices in the marketplace. In the final analysis, the only way to align production with society’s interests and the needs of the environment is to do so directly. The huge global problems we face require the visible hand of direct economic planning to reorganize the world economy to meet the needs of humans and the environment, to enforce limits on consumption and pollution, to fairly ration and distribute the goods and services we produce for the benefit of each and every person on the planet and to conserve resources so that future generations of humans and other life forms also can live their lives to the full. All this is inconceivable without the abolition of capitalist private property in the means of production and the institution of collective bottom-up democratic control over the economy and society. And it will be impossible to build functioning democracies unless we also abolish global economic inequality. This is the greatest moral imperative of our time, and it is essential to winning worldwide popular support for the profound changes we must make to prevent the collapse of civilization. A tall order to be sure. But we will need even taller waterproof boots if we don’t make this happen. If Paul Hawken, Lester Brown, Francis Cairncross and Paul Krugman have a better plan, where is it?

In the niddling little details, Richard Smith may be wrong. You can make steel without coal, for example (biomass can provide the coking carbon and electric furnaces can smelt the metal) and total renewable energy production worldwide is now 20% of overall demand (not .6 percent as stated in Smith’s report), plug in electric vehicles, especially when run by renewable power sources, do result in an overall lowering of fossil fuel emissions, and, yes, you can eventually weed out all the carbon-producing fossil fuel inputs from a manufacturing chain (just not all waste and pollution).

But all that over-pessimism aside, Smith is correct in the broad brush. Steel production is limited by its coal or biomass coking base and overall mineral and energy inputs. If you use coal, it is also limited by long-term damage to the climate and to water supplies. Manufacturing, no matter how efficient, will always produce some waste and consume some resources that are not recyclable.

Overshoot_2

(Classic ecological overshoot and degraded carrying capacity. Image source: The Elephant in the Room)

And, most importantly, any economic model requiring endless exponential growth in the consumption of labor and resources is eventually doomed to fail especially when it is primarily based, as it is today, on a set of finite materials (fossil fuels) that through their ever increasing use cause untold damage to the world in which we live. When such a model is also based on an endless funneling of wealth to the top of the economic spectrum it is socially horrific as well. A Godzilla Zombie of a thing.

To survive the age of Growth Shock will require not just a transition away from dirty, dangerous and depleting fuels. It will also require economic systems that do not demand more materials and resources than our single Earth can provide. And, in this, Mr Smith is absolutely correct. We need to reverse the trend that has so undermined both our faith in and the direct effectiveness of our systems of government. Corporatism, commercialism, and laissez faire neoliberal globalized capitalism all must vastly recede. The zero sum game must be put back into its box. Governments must be enabled to impose effective rules and constraints even as it is also enabled to redistribute wealth to its people. It must be enabled to gap fill for the industries it will most certainly have to shut down by providing alternate jobs programs and livelihoods for those who will inevitably be put out of work. It can no longer be the ineffective baby-sitter for anarchic corporations who do what they want, when they want, however they want. Either through active responsibility or passive turning away and collapse, those days are coming to an end. Lastly, the world’s civilizations must learn to work together effectively, acquiescing to rules and constraints that benefit all people.

These are tall orders. But if we wish to retain some shade of our current wealth and Earth’s current richness and beauty, if we wish to establish a powerful, capable, and effective world civilization, if we wish to pursue justice for all peoples and not just the wealthy, then we must pursue these goals with passion and ardor. For the path we are currently on has no viable future.

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The Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice: Will Beaufort Break-up and Melt Proceed a Month or More Ahead of Schedule?

The scientists are worried. The Arctic is responding to human-caused climate change much faster than expected. As little as a year ago, scientists weren’t predicting an ice free summer Arctic Ocean until around 2060 to 2080. Then the 2012 melt season erased all hope that melt would proceed at such a gradual pace.

Now, most scientists predict that summers will see an ice-free Arctic Ocean by 2030. Unfortunately even this, much earlier, date may be too conservative for the Arctic sea ice, which appears to currently be shattering under a death blow of global proportion. And it is, for this reason, why we should seriously listen to one scientist who has spent much of his career listening to the sea ice.

Peter Wadhams, a polar researcher for most of his life, spent more than 40,000 hours on naval submarines, taking an intimate account of sea ice health and thickness. And Dr. Wadhams doesn’t think the summer sea ice has much longer to live. He predicts an ice-free or near ice free state for the Arctic Ocean come 2015 or 2016. In a recent interview to The Guardian, Wadhams stated:

This collapse I predicted would occur in 2015-16 at which time the summer Arctic (August to September) would become ice-free. The final collapse towards that state is now happening and will probably be complete by those dates.

Wadhams’ prediction comes very close to fitting the current trend of sea ice volume losses which will result, if trends continue, in an ice free Arctic come summer by 2017. However, as noted in a previous analysis here, any single melt year comparable to 2007 or 2011 would be enough to take down all or most of the remaining sea ice in just one year.

So the critical question is this: is such an event occurring now? Are we experiencing the final collapse that Wadhams mentions? If so, how would we know? Given that we have no precedent for what is happening to the sea ice, it is far more difficult to predict what may happen than, say, in a weather forecast. Regardless, there may well be a number of clues that are showing us a very big melt season and, with it, the last days of Arctic sea ice is well on the way.

Enter the Beaufort sea ice. The Beaufort sea contains ice that protects the rear of the remaining thick ice. Beaufort ice acts as both wall and insulator to the dwindling last bastion of multi-year ice now huddled protectively next to Greenland and the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. Should that protection disappear too rapidly or too early, much of that remaining ice may not be able to make it through the Arctic summer.

Unfortunately, Beaufort sea ice underwent a major cracking event from February to March. Such events usually don’t occur until April or May. But this year’s cracking event came 40-50 days sooner. It also came with a vengeance. The cracks, usually contained within the Beaufort Sea, spread to cover much of the Arctic, invading even the remaining thick, multi-year ice. Not only did this cracking event rupture the thick ice, it also appears to have taken it off its anchor point.

This combined impact is likely to leave the multi-year ice both more fragmented and mobile come summer. And it could spell disaster for the remaining sea ice.

How will we know if this sea ice doomsday scenario is proceeding? One hint that it is occurring will be seeing something like the below image progression appearing in the vicinity of Banks Island in early May:

ModisFinalBigIndexSmallBB2_zps8f64a49d

(Image source: Ice Blog/A-Team)

What you are seeing in the above image is a break up of sea ice that occurred from March 30th to June 15th of 2012. This event bears striking similarities to this year’s February break-up. It contains the same network of ring fractures and it resulted in radically reduced resilience of Beaufort sea ice come mid-summer. The difference is that last year’s break-up began about 45 days later and was much smaller. It did not include the thick sea ice, nor did it pull that ice from its anchor points. This year’s break-up did both.

For comparison to this image sequence here is a picture of the sea ice in the same region today:

beaufort05Apr13_zps1df4b93c

(Image source: MODIS)

The state of sea ice in the same region now roughly corresponds to the state of sea ice in the same region during early May of last year. Arctic Ice Blog commenter A-Team notes:

Comparing 2012 visible imagery to 2013 infrared is somewhat problematic but the best match to today’s date 05 Apr 13 is approximately 10 May 12, or 35 days later. The southern coastline in the vicinity of Banks Island provides the best diagnostic region.

Recall 2012 was a record melt year with a very similar arc fracturing pattern developing in the Beaufort. However this developed much later in the spring and did not extend past the Prince Patrick Island leverage point.

In summary, the rapid acceleration of Beaufort Gyre rotation in early June 2012 and the breakup of icepack into floes can be expected in early May for 2013. This will contribute to a vastly more extensive melt-out expected in late summer 2013.

So what is setting up to happen next, should this worst case estimate proceed, is that the Beaufort Gyre will rapidly accelerate come early May, resulting in a disintegration of sea ice similar to what is seen in the above picture, but about 30-40 days ahead of schedule. The Gyre is a surface current that circles the Beaufort Sea. Ice on the water tends to retard the flow of this current. But as the ice becomes less solid, the Gyre speeds up, aiding in the breaking and mixing of sea ice with warmer waters. This process, as seen in the image sequences above, can lead to a rapid collapse and melt-out of sea ice.

If such an event does occur at such an early date, it will be one more indication that summer 2013 melt is proceeding at a much faster and more dangerous pace than even 2012. The early break-up was a strong indication that melt may be much worse for this year. If an early melt and speed up of the Beaufort Gyre occurs in this region, it will be one more sign that the summer of 2013 could be one in which further dramatic and dangerous melt occurs. One which may spell out the last days of Arctic sea ice.

Links:

The Arctic Ice Blog

Total Meltdown Warning

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