Another Historic Storm: Surreal Ophelia Strikes Ireland with Hurricane Force

“Ophelia is breaking new ground for a major hurricane. Typically those waters [are] much too cool for anything this strong. I really can’t believe I’m seeing a major just south of the Azores.” — National Hurricane Center scientist Eric Blake on Twitter.

*****

Warmer than normal ocean temperatures due to human-forced climate change are now enabling major hurricanes to threaten Northern Europe. A region that was traditionally considered primarily out of the range of past powerful Atlantic Ocean hurricanes under 20th Century climatology. One that, in a warmer world, is increasingly under the gun.

(Ophelia roars over Ireland. Image source: NASA Worldview.)

On October 14, Ophelia hit major hurricane status as it moved swiftly toward Europe. Packing 115 mph maximum sustained winds over a region of ocean where we’ve never recorded this kind of powerful storm before, Ophelia set its sights on Ireland. Crossing over warmer than normal North Atlantic Ocean waters, the storm maintained hurricane status up to 12 hours before barreling into Ireland. At that time, cooler waters caused the storm to transition to extra-tropical. But this transition was not enough to prevent Ireland from being struck by hurricane-force gusts up to 119 mph, storm surge flooding, and seeing structural damage reminiscent to a category one storm.

360,000 power outages and two deaths were attributed to a storm that should have not maintained such high intensity so far north and east. Yet another historic storm that forced the National Hurricane Center to shift its tracking map east of the 0 degree longitude line (Greenwich) since they had not planned for a hurricane or its tropical remnants to move so far out of the typical zone for North Atlantic hurricanes (see image at bottom of page).

(Human-caused climate change produces angrier seas off Ireland as amped-up Ophelia rages.)

As with many of the recently powerful storms, 1 to 2 degree Celsius above average sea surface temperatures were a prime enabler allowing Ophelia to maintain such high intensity so far north. And under the present trend, it appears that the Atlantic coasts of Spain, Portugal, France, Ireland and England are now all more likely to see tropical storm and hurricane impacts in the future as sea surface temperatures continue to rise. In the past, strikes by tropical cyclones to places like Ireland were considered to be rare — with the last Hurricane to impact Ireland being Debbie in 1961. But recent climate science studies indicate that global warming is likely to increase the frequency of hurricane and tropical storm impacts to Northern Europe:

In a paper published in April 2013, the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute predicted that by the year 2100, global warming would greatly increase the threat of hurricane-force winds to western Europe from former tropical cyclones and hybrid storms, the latter similar to Hurricane Sandy in 2012. One model predicted an increase from 2 to 13 in the number of cyclones with hurricane-force winds in the waters offshore western Europe. The study suggested that conditions favorable for tropical cyclones would expand 1,100 km (700 mi) to the east. A separate study based out of University of Castile-La Mancha predicted that hurricanes would develop in the Mediterranean Sea in Septembers by the year 2100, which would threaten countries in southern Europe.

The present Atlantic hurricane season can now only be described as a surreal caricature of what we feared climate change could produce. Texas, Florida, Puerto Rico and a dozen or more Caribbean islands are now devastated disaster areas. Some locations may feel the effects of the off-the-charts powerful storms enabled by a warmer than normal ocean for decades to come. Puerto Rico, unless it receives far more significant aid from the mainland than the Trump Administration appears to be willing to provide, may never fully recover.  And now Ophelia has maintained hurricane status until just twelve hours before striking Europe’s Ireland as a powerful extra-tropical storm.

2017 has also been an extraordinary year basin-wide by measure of storm energy. Total accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) for the North Atlantic as of October 15 was 222.5. So far, according to this measure, 2017 is the 7th strongest hurricane season ever recorded since records began in 1851. The most intense season, 1933, may see its own record of 259 ACE exceeded over the coming days and weeks. For storms still appear to be forming over record warm waters. According to the National Hurricane Center, a disturbance off the East Coast of the United States now has a 40 percent chance of developing into the season’s 16th named storm over the next 48 hours. Meanwhile, during recent years, powerful late October storms like Matthew and Sandy have tended to crop up over warmer than normal ocean waters even as late season storms ranging into November and December appear to be more common. In other words, we’re not out of the woods yet and 2017 may be a year to exceed all other years for total measured storm intensity as well as overall damage.

(UPDATED)

Links:

Ex-Hurricane Ophelia Batters Ireland Under Orange Skies

The National Hurricane Center

Colorado State: Accumulated Cyclone Energy

NASA Worldview

Tropical Cyclone Effects in Europe

Hat tip to Eleggua

Hat tip to Jeremy in Wales

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Significant Monsters: Climate Change Enhanced Wildfires Tear Widening Swath Through California

“We are facing some pretty significant monsters,” — Cal Fire incident commander Bret Couvea to a room of about 200 firefighters and law enforcement officials at the Sonoma County Fairgrounds on Wednesday morning.

“Think of the climate change issue as a closet, and behind the door are lurking all kinds of monsters — and there’s a long list of them,” — Steve Pacala.

*****

As of Wednesday, the massive fires blazing across California and concentrated in the north had consumed over 141,000 acres, resulted in the loss of 17 lives, and destroyed more than 2,000 structures. Approximately 50,000 people are now evacuated from the fire zones. And about 500 individuals are reported missing. A grim tally that is unfortunately likely to worsen as the hours and days progress.

This outbreak is now one of the worst fire disasters ever to strike California. One which may break all previous records for tragic loss of life and property when this terrible event finally winds down many days from now and all losses are counted.

Significant Monsters…

In total, eight major fires are still burning across the state. As all but one fire remains uncontained, the area consumed continues to expand. The seven large out of control fires presently range in size from 7,500 to 37,000 acres each and have burned approximately 40,000 additional acres in just the past 24 hours alone. Lighter winds and cooler weather have aided firefighting efforts. But the sudden large scale of the fires erupting Sunday through Tuesday and very dry and occasionally gusty conditions with no rain in sight have produced serious challenges for firefighters.

(The skies of northern California blanketed by smoke from massive blazes streaming like ‘liquid fire’ across Northern California on Tuesday, October 10. Image source: NASA Worldview.)

As of yet, no direct initial cause for the fires has been identified. But the co-location of some fires with downed power lines due to wind gusts up to hurricane force late Sunday night have provided one potential ignition source. Human error or malicious activity have not yet been ruled out.

… Fed by Climate Change …

Regardless of direct cause of ignition, the fires lit in vegetative growth that sprang up after an abnormally wet winter and spring. This growth has flash-dried over summer in a region that received 10-20 percent of its typical moisture allotment over that period. Northern California over recent years has experienced severe drought, extreme rains, and during summer of 2017 flash drying of new vegetative growth. This is a cycle of extremes consistent with human caused climate change. So as with the major hurricanes blowing up over the ocean this year we can definitely say that climate change has played a role in setting conditions that enabled this event to hit a much more fierce than usual intensity.

… Caused by Bad Energy and Environmental Policy Choices

Bad choices — primarily involved with continued policies promoting fossil fuel burning (#1), harmful agricultural practices (#2), and deforestation (#3) have brought us to this pass. Failure to rapidly enable a renewable energy transition and to produce policies that promote less harmful consumption and more sustainable land use will result in an ever-increasing tempo of extreme events.

We see this high tempo now in events that bear the names Harvey, Irma, Maria, California fires and so, so many more over the past few years. Let us hope and pray that it relents enough to give us the space to make the right choices for ourselves, the life supports of our planet, and our children.

RELATED STATEMENTS AND INFORMATION:

A recent climate study found that warming oceans have weakened the southwestern monsoon generating a prevalence for droughts and wildfires in the region. This is a direct result of human-caused climate change:

Links:

The National Interagency Fire Center

NASA Worldview

Some Pretty Significant Monsters

Pure Devastation

California Fires: Before and After Photos

How Did the California Fires Become so Devastating?

Hat tip to Eleggua

Hat tip to Genomik

 

Wounded Tropical Forests Now Emit 425 Million Tons of Carbon Each Year — Restoration, Fossil Fuel Emissions Cuts Now Urgent

In his seminal piece — Collapse — Jared Diamond documented how a number of civilizations who failed to protect their forests ultimately also experienced severe systemic decline.

Forests provide innumerable ecosystem services. They filter the air and water, provide a habitat for helpful plants and animals, prevent erosion, sequester moisture that enables healthy rainfall patterns. To keep forests safe and to nourish them is to keep the land itself safe. To keep life safe. To, ultimately, keep human civilizations safe.

In other words, a city or nation cannot healthily exist without healthy forests to support it.

Mistreated Tropical Forests become Carbon Source

From the point of view of confronting climate change, maintaining healthy forests is also essential. Healthy forests sequester more carbon — keeping that carbon locked in plants and soils. Unhealthy forests do the opposite — they release carbon stored over years and decades.

Since time immemorial, short-sighted forms of human civilization have harmed forests by cutting down too many trees, by killing off the creatures that support healthy forests, or worse, by burning the forests down. Ultimately, most of those civilizations also cut their own life-spans short. In the present day, we see this kind of harmful activity throughout the tropics. And, as a result, the tropical forests which have done us such an amazing service by drawing down a substantial portion of the fossil-fuel based carbon emission are ailing.

(In this image from Earth Nullschool, we can see high present carbon dioxide concentrations at the Earth’s surface. High CO2 concentrations show up in light colors. Low CO2 concentrations show up in dark colors. As you can see in the above image, the rainforest regions of the Amazon and Equatorial Africa are presently drawing down a considerable amount of atmospheric CO2 — which is generating a lower local concentration. That said, these forests do not draw down as much carbon as they used to. They have been disrupted by harmful human activity such as clear cutting and hunting of key species. As a result, through decay, fire, and drought, these forests are now emitting more carbon than they take in on net.)

According to a recent report out of the journal Science, about 425 million tons of carbon are being released, on net, from tropical forests around the world each year. This is equivalent to about 4 percent of global human emissions (primarily from fossil fuel burning) of around 11 billion tons of carbon each year. In other words, poor forest management is already amplifying the impact of fossil fuel based climate change.

The tropical forest carbon release occurred between 2003 and 2014. Study authors noted in The Guardian:

“This shows that we can’t just sit back. The forest is not doing what we thought it was doing. As always, trees are removing carbon from the atmosphere, but the volume of the forest is no longer enough to compensate for the losses. The region is not a sink any more.”

These same authors attributed this turning of a net carbon sink into a net carbon source primarily to poor land management practices. Primary sources of harm and loss involved the “thinning of tree density and the culling of biodiversity below an apparently protected canopy – usually as a result of selective logging, fire, drought and hunting.” More of the forested land has been turned over to developers and hunters when the land should have been set aside for protected parks and for the use of indigenous peoples whose ways of living help to support forest ecosystems.

An Urgent Need to Rapidly Cut Carbon Emissions While Restoring Healthy Forests

While human-caused climate change is now adding pressure to tropical forests, poor land management is presently a greater source of harm. In the past, sustainability-minded scientists had assumed that tropical forests would remain mostly functional as a carbon sink until warming approached 3-4 C above late 19th Century averages. At that point, heat alone will be enough to wring carbon out of these forests on net. But harmful human activity has pushed that time forward to the first decade of the 2000s.

Ultimately, the early failure of forests as a tropical carbon sink means that there’s less of a so-called carbon budget available. At this blog, we have long asserted that the effective carbon budget for a safe Earth at this time is basically zero. What this means is that some bad climate outcomes such as worsening weather, reduction of habitability in the Equatorial and near-Equatorial region, possible disruptions to growing seasons, declining ocean health for at least the next century, and sea level rise forcing mass abandonment of coastal settlements are already possible, likely, or happening now. Any addition of carbon thus makes an already troubling situation worse. That said, rapid cuts to fossil fuel emissions can still prevent worse outcomes such as more rapid sea level rise, much worse weather, very extreme heat rendering large regions practically uninhabitable for present societies, and a potentially worst-in-class global mass extinction associated with a hothouse ocean anoxic event.

(How removal of large animals through hunting and poaching can harm a forest’s ability to sequester carbon. Image source: Carbon Brief.)

Present science pointing toward loss of Tropical forests as a carbon sink means that our window is, again, rather smaller than past scientific oracles previously identified. The urgency for rapid carbon emissions cuts, therefore, could not be greater. But we also need to protect and restore forest vitality — which will be necessary to help the natural world bounce back from the insult we’ve already produced.

From study author Wayne Walker:

“We need to be positive. Let’s turn tropical forests back into a sink. We need to restore degraded areas. As far as technology for reducing carbon is concerned, this is low-hanging fruit. We know how to protect and sustain forests. It’s relatively cost effective.”

To be very clear, without emissions cuts to zero and subsequent atmospheric carbon drawdown substantial enough to prevent 3-4 C warming, these forests will eventually be in trouble due to the very harmful impacts of rising heat alone. So we need to do both. And we need to do it now.

Links:

Tropical Forests are Now a Net Carbon Source

Alarm as Study Reveals Tropical Forests are a Huge Carbon Source

Earth Nullschool

Carbon Brief

Collapse

Hat tip to Umbrios

Climate Change Related Extreme Weather Rocks World, Weird Major Hurricane Forms East of Bermuda, Cyclone Energy Closing in on Records

Around the world, the litany of climate change related extreme weather events reached an extraordinary tempo over the past week. And it is becoming difficult for even climate change deniers to ignore what is increasingly obvious. The weather on planet Earth is getting worse. And human-caused global warming is, in vast majority, to blame…

Climate Change Related Extreme Weather Spans Globe

(Climate and Extreme Weather Events for September 17 through 24.)

Puerto Rico is still knocked out a week after Maria roared through. With Trump basically ignoring this worst in class blow by a hurricane ramped up by human-caused climate change, it will be a wonder if this territory of 3.4 million U.S. citizens ever fully recovers.

In other and far-flung parts, Brazil is experiencing an abnormally extreme dry season. Australia just experienced its hottest winter on record. In Teruel, Spain, thunderstorms forming in a much warmer than normal atmosphere dumped half a meter of hail. Antarctic sea ice is hitting record lows after being buffeted by warm winds on at least two sides. And in Guatemala, Mexico, Poland, the Congo, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, India and Oklahoma, there have been extreme or record floods.

Weird Major Hurricane in Central Atlantic

More locally to the U.S., in the North Atlantic warmer than normal surface waters have fueled the odd development of hurricane Lee into a category 3 storm. It’s not really that strange for a major hurricane to develop in the Atlantic during September. It’s just that we’d tend to expect a storm of this kind to hit such high intensity in the Gulf of Mexico, or over the Gulf Stream, or in the Caribbean. Not at 30.6 N, 56.8 W in the Central North Atlantic south and east of Bermuda and strengthening from a weaker storm that was torn apart in the Inter-Tropical-Convergence-Zone, before drifting considerably to the north over what would typically be a less favorable environment.

But typical this present hurricane season is not. Maria, which is still a hurricane after ten days, is presently lashing coastal North Carolina with tropical storm force gusts as it moves ever so slowly to the north and east. With Irma lasting for 14 days, Jose lasting for 17, and Lee lasting for 13 so far, 2017 may well be the year of years for long duration, intense storms. Meanwhile, a disturbance to the south of Cuba shows a potential for developing into yet another tropical cyclone.

Closing in on Record Accumulated Cyclone Energy

(2017 Accumulated Cyclone Energy for the North Atlantic. Image source: Colorado State University.)

Storms lasting for so long and hitting such high intensity produce a lot of energy. And the primary measure we have for that expended energy is ACE or Accumulated Cyclone Energy. 2017 is bound to achieve one of the highest ACE measures for any Atlantic Hurricane Season. Since 1851, only 8 years have seen an ACE value hit above 200. Present 2017 ACE is at 194 and climbing. Highest ever ACE values were recorded in 2005, at 250, and 1933 at 259.

Individual storm ACE values are also impressive with 2017 presently showing 3 storms with an individual ACE higher than 40. Only 27 storms with a 40+ ACE value are ever recorded to have formed in the Atlantic. Irma, so far, is the highest ACE for 2017 at 66.6 — which is the second highest individual storm ACE ever for the Atlantic. Jose produced an ACE of 42.2 (24th) and Maria an ACE of 41.4 (26th).

If 2017 continues to produce strong, long-lasting storms over a record hot Atlantic, it is easily within striking distance of a record ACE year. The restrengthening of Lee to major hurricane status so far north and out in the Atlantic was yet one more surprise that shows how much energy the Atlantic is bleeding off this year. Such a tendency will likely continue through October but with storms probably not forming quite so frequently as during September and originating in regions closer to the Caribbean and U.S.

Links:

Puerto Ricans Waiting For Aid a Week After Maria’s Devastation

When Does it Rain Again in Brasil?

Hail Storm Causes Chaos in Teruel

Antarctic Sea Ice Hits Another Record Low

Colorado State University

The National Hurricane Center

2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Accumulated Cyclone Energy

Hat tip to Suzanne

Hat tip to Vic

Hat tip to Umbrios

Major Hurricane Maria Could Hit 150 Mph+ Intensity as it Barrels Toward Puerto Rico

As of early afternoon on September 18, Hurricane Maria had reached major hurricane intensity of 125 mph maximum sustained winds and a 956 mb minimum central pressure. Moving west-northwest at 10 mph, the storm is tracking through already the hurricane-weary eastern Caribbean islands on a path toward a Puerto Rico still recovering from its close brush with Category 5 Hurricane Irma.

(National Hurricane Center’s [NHC] projected path and intensity for Maria shows a major hurricane threatening Puerto Rico over the next two days. Image source: NHC.)

Maria is expected to track over very warm Caribbean waters in the range of 84 to 86 degrees Fahrenheit (29+ C) as it enters a favorable atmospheric environment. And forecasters now call for Maria to rapidly intensify. Hurricane watches have already been issued for the American territory of Puerto Rico. And the present official Hurricane Center track and forecast intensity for Maria (see above image) shows a severe blow by a powerful category 4 storm striking somewhere along southeastern Puerto Rico early Wednesday with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph.

2017 Already a Season for the Record Books

It’s worth noting that some models presently show Maria tracking north of Puerto Rico. So the island could still avoid a direct hit. But the current official consensus is a rather grim forecast.

(IR satellite imagery of Maria shows an increasingly organized storm. Forecast points and sea surface temperatures included for reference. Image source: National Hurricane Center.)

Maria is the fourth major hurricane to form in the Atlantic during 2017 — which has been an exceptional season in many respects. This year saw the early formation of Arlene in April — only the second named storm recorded to have formed during that month. It saw the strongest hurricane ever to form outside of the Carribbean or Gulf of Mexico — Irma — which was also tied as the strongest land falling hurricane in the Atlantic. Both Category 4 Harvey and Irma struck the continental U.S. — the first time two Cat 4 storms have struck the states in a single month. And Harvey produced the heaviest recorded rainfall total from a tropical system at 51.88 inches. Overall damage estimates from the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season presently stand at 132 billion dollars — which makes this season the second costliest so far (behind 2005).

How Climate Change and Other Global Factors Contributed

With damages from Harvey and Irma still uncounted, with Maria barreling in, and with a week and a half left to September and all of October remaining, it’s likely that 2017 will see more to come. Though Irma and Jose have churned up cooler waters in their wakes, large sections of the Gulf, Caribbean, and North Atlantic remain considerably warmer than normal.

(Sea surface temperature anomaly map shows that much of the North Atlantic and Carribbean are between 0.5 and 2 C warmer than the already warmer than normal 30-year average. Image source: Earth Nullschool.)

Meanwhile, a very vigorous Inter-Tropical-Convergence-Zone (ITCZ) is still producing powerful thunderstorms over Africa. And cool water upwelling in the Pacific has generated La Nina-like conditions that tend to cut down on Atlantic wind shear — allowing more storms to fully develop and tap those warmer than normal waters to reach higher maximum intensities. Some of these factors — particularly the warmer than normal surface waters and possibly the increased intensity of ITCZ thunderstorms are climate change related. So yes, statements from those like Dr. Michael Mann claiming that this season’s hurricanes were made worse by climate change are absolutely valid.

(UPDATES TO FOLLOW)

RELATED STATEMENTS AND INFORMATION:

Links:

National Hurricane Center

Earth Nullschool

878 mb Storm Off North Florida — The Model Forecast for Irma that no one Wants to See Happen

As the United States struggles to recover from severe damage inflicted by one hurricane made far worse by climate change, another powerful storm is brewing over the hotter than normal waters of the tropical North Atlantic.

As of the 5 PM Atlantic Standard Time statement from the National Hurricane Center, Irma was positioned about 1,100 miles east of the Leeward Islands in the central tropical Atlantic. The storm hosted a small circulation, packing 110 mph winds and a minimum central pressure of 973 mb. Over the next few days, according to the Hurricane Center, Irma is presently expected to reach major hurricane status with 130 mph maximum sustained winds.

(Category 2 Irma in the Central Atlantic seems relatively innocuous. But NHC guidance indicates the potential for Irma to develop into a major hurricane over the next five days. Some of the longer range models, however, are producing some rather worrying forecasts. Image source: National Hurricane Center.)

The Hurricane Center is clear to note that it uncertain at this time if Irma will ultimately threaten the Bahamas or the mainland U.S. But the Center cautions that all interests remain watchful and prepared as the storm could pose a risk over the coming days:

It is much too early to determine what direct impacts Irma will have on the Bahamas and the continental United States. Regardless, everyone in hurricane-prone areas should ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place, as we are now near the peak of the season.

Looking beyond the official forecast, some of the our best long range model runs are putting together some seriously scary predictions for Irma. By next week, the Global Forecast System (GFS) model shows Irma as a 878 mb monster hurricane looming about 300 miles off Florida. 878 mb would represent the lowest pressures ever recorded in a hurricane in the Atlantic (The present strongest Atlantic storm was Wilma at 882 mb. The devastating Labor Day Hurricane hit 892 mb.). And it would almost certainly represent the strongest storm in our records ever to venture so far North. 878 mb roughly corresponds with maximum sustained winds in excess of 170 mph and possibly as high as 200 mph or more. And we’ve never seen something like that threatening the Central Atlantic U.S. East Coast in all of the modern era.

(A storm stronger than Wilma and approaching Tip’s record 870 mb intensity off North Florida and not in the Caribbean? GFS says it’s possible. Let’s hope for the sake of much that is precious and dear to us that this model forecast does not emerge. Image source: Tropical Tidbits.)

The model then slams the storm into Cape Hatteras just after midnight on Monday, September 11 as only a slightly weaker Category 5 range storm at 910 mb. The storm proceeds north into the Hampton Roads area early Monday morning retaining approximate Cat 5 status at 919 mb. After roaring over this highly populated low-lying region, the storm enters the Chesapeake Bay at 934 mb by noon on Monday — in the Category 4 range and still stronger than Hurricane Sandy — before crossing up the Bay and over the D.C. region by evening the same day at 958 mb (approx Cat 3).

To say this would be an absolute worst case disaster scenario for the Mid-Atlantic is an understatement. A storm of this intensity would produce 10-20 foot or higher storm surges, devastating winds, and catastrophic rainfall throughout the Outer Banks, Hampton Roads and on up the Chesapeake Bay. But unlike Harvey, it would be a fast-moving event. More like a freight train than a persistently worsening deluge.

This long range model scenario is not, however, an official forecast. It’s just what the GFS atmospheric computer models are presently spitting out. And such long range predictions from a single model, no matter how reliable, should be taken with at least a pinch of salt. That said, we should certainly, as the NHC recommends, keep our eyes on Irma and keep our response plans ready.

(Sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic off the Southeast Coast are between 1 and 1.8 C above average. Atmospheric moisture levels are quite high as is instability. So as with Harvey, we have quite a lot more fuel than normal available for a hurricane to feed on. Image source: Earth Nullschool.)

We should also note the context in which this present extreme potential emerges. Ocean surfaces in the North Atlantic off Florida are very warm with temperatures around 30.5 degrees Celsius (87 F) near the Bahamas. This is about 1.8 degrees Celsius above the already warmer than normal climatological average. Atmospheric moisture and instability in this region of the North Atlantic are also quite high. These two conditions provide fuel for hurricanes that do enter this region. They are conditions that are linked, at least in part, to human-caused climate change. And they are similar to the conditions that amplified Harvey’s intensity just prior to landfall.

So though the GFS forecast described above is far from certain, we should absolutely listen to the NHC’s urging for us to pay attention to what could be another dangerous developing storm. One that appears to at least be physically capable of defying previous weather and climate expectations. Let’s just hope it doesn’t.

Links:

The National Hurricane Center

Earth Nullschool

Tropical Tidbits

List of Most Intense Tropical Cyclones

With up to 42 Inches of Rain Already Dumped on Texas, Harvey’s Track Over Gulf Means 10-21 More to Come

By mid-afternoon Monday, a still very wet Harvey had back-tracked over the Gulf of Mexico. The storm has now dumped unprecedented, record-setting rains totaling more than 30 inches over a Houston that is being forced to release dam water into already flooded regions in order to prevent over-topping or worse. Meanwhile, nearby Dayton, as of this morning, had received nearly 40 inches since the storm began on Friday. And as of noon, Baytown, TX has seen 41.77 inches over the sixty hour storm period.

Harvey’s circulation is now located along the coast south and west of Galveston and it is edging slowly back over the Gulf of Mexico. The storm is still drawing copious volumes of moisture up from the Gulf. This moisture flood is still fueling a massive shield of rain and thunderstorms stretching over much of Eastern Texas, a good portion of Louisiana and parts of Mississippi. And with its center now moving back over water, this moisture flow and its related thunderstorms are again starting to intensify.

 

(Harvey’s rains shield reinvigorates as the storm once again crosses into the Gulf. Image source: The National Weather Service.)

Presently, the most intense rains from the system are clustered over Houston (still), adjacent portions of the Texas Coast, and Eastern Louisiana.

As of 4 PM CDT, Harvey had re-intensified somewhat to 997 mb with maximum sustained winds near 45 miles per hour. Over the next 24 hours, Harvey is expected to back slowly southward over the Gulf of Mexico, then turn back northward. By late Tuesday, the tropical storm is again expected to be closing in on the Texas Coast for a likely second landfall late Tuesday or early Wednesday.

Present satellite imagery shows Harvey reintensifying somewhat in the infrared — with stronger storms firing near Harvey’s Center and just to the north in the Houston region. A dry slot of air in the storm, however, is likely to limit re-strengthening as the storm passes over water during the next 12-24 hours.

(Harvey appears to restrengthen somewhat in the infrared satellite as it taps Gulf heat and moisture. Image source: The National Hurricane Center.)

As such, Harvey at present is still a rather dangerous rain event. An event that is now re-gathering some of its strength and intensity as it digs more deeply into Gulf moisture.

Earlier today, meteorologists noted an optimistic wedge of dry air moving into the system from Central Texas. Such a wedge would tend to tamp down rainfall rates over Houston and East Texas. And the region did get a bit of a respite from heavy rains earlier in the day. However, with the moisture tap to that abnormally warm Gulf now re-established, heavier rains are again filling in near the storm center and just to the north.

(NOAA is still showing a potential for in excess of 20 inches of rain in the Houston region even following the massive, historic deluge that has already been unleashed by a hurricane fueled by a record warm world. Image source: NOAA.)

As a result, Houston is likely to get socked with a third bout of very heavy rain tonight through tomorrow with a fourth bout likely on tap for late Tuesday night. And, presently, NOAA now predicts that up to another 21 inches of rain is on the way for the Houston region on top of the already historic totals of 20-40 inches that have inundated the city.

(UPDATED 7)

UPDATE (8): The latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center notes that:

Harvey is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 10 to 20 inches through Thursday over parts of the upper Texas coast into southwestern Louisiana. Isolated storm totals may reach 50 inches over the upper Texas coast, including the Houston/Galveston metropolitan area. These rains are currently producing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding over large portions of southeastern Texas. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED AREA IF YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE. DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS. Please see warnings and products issued by your local National Weather Service office for additional information on this life-threatening situation.

This storm isn’t over folks. Not by a long shot.

RELATED INFORMATION AND STATEMENTS:

Links:

The National Weather Service

The National Hurricane Center

NOAA

Harvey Moves Back Over Water. Historic Rainfall Will Continue.

Hat tip to wili

Hat tip to eleggua

Harvey’s Mammoth Deluge Potential: Some Models Are Showing Storm Could Produce Five Feet of Rain

Media, Texas, and Gulf Coast residents take note: the thing to be most concerned about with regards to Harvey is not its admittedly life-threatening storm surge and strong winds, but what is shaping up to be a potentially historic rainfall event.

*****

The latest update from the National Hurricane Center shows that Harvey continues to strengthen and is now a category 4 storm. Packing 130 mph winds and a 941 mb minimum central pressure, the storm is certainly now very powerful. This new intensity is above the NHC’s previously expected peak strength for the storm just prior to landfall late tonight. The situation is thus becoming ever more dangerous.

But with Harvey, the serious concern we are facing is not just the usual and notably very dangerous high winds and storm surge flooding that go along with a category 4 storm. We are also looking at very severe and long lasting flooding rains that will have the potential to cause damage and disruption for not just months but for years to come.

A Devastating Rainfall Potential

(Southeast Texas has never seen 60 inches of rainfall from a tropical system. But that potential exists with Harvey.)

Consensus models now predict that peak rainfall totals will be around 35 inches in association with Harvey. This is due to the dual facts that Harvey is currently a very moisture-rich storm and that the storm is expected to stall for between 5 and 10 days following landfall. The storm is predicted to hover along the coastline, drawing in an unusually intense flow of moisture from a much warmer than normal Gulf, and to generate severe thunderstorms hour after hour, day after day. And this kind of rain event, if it emerges, could produce a disaster of historic proportions for Texas.

It’s worth noting that rainfall totals could also exceed the consensus forecast. Some models are now predicting upwards of 50 or 60 inches of rainfall by the time Harvey leaves the Texas area later next week (see top image above). The highest rainfall amounts ever produced by a tropical cyclone, in our records, for Texas is 48 inches. But there’s at least some possibility, with the perfect rainstorm that appears to be shaping up in Harvey, that these ultimate rainfall totals will be exceeded and a disaster of unprecedented proportions could emerge. But even if this worst-case doesn’t emerge, a 35 inch rainfall event would wreck untold destruction upon Texas’s southeastern cities.

Harvey strengthening as it moves toward shore

( Harvey rapidly strengthening to CAT 4 as it nears landfall. Image source: National Hurricane Center.)

Normally soft-spoken forecasters like Bob Henson and Eric Holthaus are not mincing words over the potential severity of the present situation. Last night, Bob Henson on twitter asked people: “Please don’t fixate on whether Harvey arrives as a Cat 2, 3, or 4. It’s the mammoth rainfall amounts (up to 35″) that will affect millions.” Meanwhile, Eric Holthaus warned: “This is scary. I have never seen a rainfall forecast like this in my entire career. Texas will be recovering from for years.”

Of course, we could dodge a bullet and rainfall totals could be lower for Harvey. It’s just that this event is currently trending toward a near worst case or worst case deluge-type storm that produces very heavy rains over the same region over nearly a week-long period.

Conditions in Context — This is Not Your Father’s Atmosphere

(The number of record rainfall events has increased dramatically during recent years. An observation attributed to human-forced climate change. Image source: Increased Record-Breaking Precipitation Events Under Global Warming.)

During recent years, a warmer than normal atmosphere has been producing more and more intense rain storms. The number of record daily rainfall instances around the world has been rising precipitously (see image above). This increasing severity is, in large part, due to the fact that human-forced warming amps up the hydrological cycle — producing more intense rain storms and more intense droughts. In other words, the climate dice are loaded for extreme rainfall and droughts in the present atmosphere. And it is in this atmosphere that Harvey has emerged. So we shouldn’t at all discount the fact that Harvey’s potential worst impacts from rainfall are now higher than they would have been even just a few decades ago. And this is one of the major reasons why we are seeing such a historic potential out of Harvey.

UPDATED (4)

UPDATE (5): As of 800 PM CDT the eye of Harvey crossed the coastline somewhere between Corpus Christi and Port O’Connor. Unfortunately, this storm is just getting started as a very severe one week long rain event is about to follow.

UPDATE (6): As of 1000 PM CDT and just following landfall, Harvey’s minimum central pressure had fallen to 938 mb. An indication that the storm was still strengthening as it began to cross the coastline. According to these reports (here and here), this is the 4th lowest barometric pressure recorded for a hurricane at landfall on the Texas coast since 1900. Maximum sustained winds remained at 130 mph with gusts to 160 mph.

Links:

National Hurricane Center

National Weather Service

Increased Record-Breaking Precipitation Events Under Global Warming

Greg Carbin

Eric Holthaus

Bob Henson

Hat tip to Greg

Hat tip to Titania

Hat tip to Wili

Hat tip to Andy in San Diego

Hat tip to Wharf Rat

Hurricane as Rain Bomb — Rapidly Intensifying Harvey Threatens to Dump 20-35+ Inches on Texas

A hurricane moving over the much warmer than normal waters of the Northern Gulf of Mexico is expected to rapidly strengthen to major status with 125 mph sustained winds over the next 12 hours before making landfall. Such rapid intensification brings with it the risk of severe storm surge flooding and damaging winds along the U.S. Gulf Coast. However, one of the most worrying features of this system is that it is incredibly moisture rich and new models now show a potential that the storm will dump as much as 20-35+ inches of rain across parts of Texas as the storm stalls over the region for 5-6 days.

(Present model guidance for Hurricane Harvey’s rainfall totals show a significant flooding potential for Texas. Note that maximum rainfall potential in this model is 40.6 inches.)

By late afternoon on Thursday, Harvey was a minor hurricane packing 85 mile per hour winds with a minimum central pressure of 976 mb and moving through the Central Gulf of Mexico on a path toward Texas. The storm was about 305 miles to the southeast of Corpus Christi, Texas and was moving toward the northwest at about 10 miles per hour. A curve toward the north is expected in the next 12-24 hours. Such a track would bring the storm adjacent to the Texas coast by some time late Friday or early Saturday.

As the storm moves north and west, it is expected to tap the warmer than normal waters of the Gulf of Mexico in the range of 87 to 88 degrees Fahrenheit and rapidly intensify into a major hurricane packing 125 mile per hour or higher winds.

(Rapidly intensifying Harvey approaches the Texas coast on Thursday. Image source: The National Hurricane Center.)

This is presently a very dangerous situation with the National Hurricane Center warning, as of the 4 PM CDT advisory that the storm is still expected to ‘rapidly intensify.’ And that peak intensity estimates could be conservative at this time. The storm will then bring 6-12 foot or higher surges to parts of the Texas Coast before moving slowly inland.

We should point out that some of the model guidance from earlier in the day predicted a very intense storm. This morning’s GFS run showed a 938 mb minimum central pressure just before the eye wall landfall late Friday. Such pressures are more consistent with a category four storm with maximum sustained winds in the range of 130 to 156 mph. This afternoon’s intensity guidance from GFS has backed off a little bit to 948 mb — which is more in the range of a strong Category 3 storm which jibes with the most recent NHS predicted intensity of 125 mph.

(Harvey may be stronger than even current NHC guidance indicates. GFS models from earlier this morning showed a 938 mb storm by late Friday. Intensity in the models has subsequently backed off to 948 mb — which is equivalent to the strong category 3 strong that the National Hurricane Center now predicts. Image source: Tropical Tidbits.)

As the eyewall reforms and the storm’s intensification rate varies, we’ll tend to end up with different peak intensity forecasts. In any case, we are looking at a major hurricane producing serious impacts for Texas and the U.S. Gulf Coast over multiple days.

Present model guidance further predicts that Harvey will slow down and then stall over southeastern Texas after making landfall — remaining basically stationary near the coast until Wednesday. As it hovers over this region, the storm will pull warm, moist air in over Eastern Texas while maintaining tropical storm intensity, generating a 5 to 6 day long severe flood event. In some scenarios, the storm may partially re-emerge over the Gulf and restrengthen. By Thursday, Harvey is expected to be picked up by a frontal system dipping in over the Central U.S. Exiting the state as it moves north and east.

(Harvey’s associated thunderstorms boil with hot intensity in this GOES satellite picture. Watch an animation of the massive storms swirling around Harvey here.)

Such a long-term stall is expected to bring significant torrential flooding rains over parts of Southeastern Texas. With averages of 17-32 inches over a wide swath and as much as 35+ inches in isolated locales. It’s worth noting that with Harvey’s top intensity continuing to trend toward major hurricane status, with a human-warmed atmosphere now capable of producing much more intense rainfall events, and with the storm expected to rain out over such a long period, some of the ultimate rainfall totals could be historic.

From the National Hurricane Center:

“The system is likely to slow down once it reaches the coast, increasing the threat of a prolonged period of heavy rain and flooding across portions of Texas, southwest Louisiana, and northeastern Mexico into early next week.”

(UPDATES TO FOLLOW)

Links:

The National Hurricane Center

Tropical Tidbits

Pivotal Weather

The Capital Weather Gang

Hat tip to Bostonblurp

Harvey’s Approach Brings Potential Severe 5-Day Rain Event For Texas and Louisiana

For the third time in less than one month, powerful thunderstorms have dropped torrential rains in excess of 6 inches over Kansas City, Missouri. In the most recent event, a frontal system dropping down over the U.S. midsection encountered a very heavy load of atmospheric moisture streaming in off a much warmer than normal Gulf of Mexico. The result for Kansas City was the production of a towering boomer that dropped 10 inches in just one night.

Such an intense downpour turned roads into rivers and forced numerous residents to take refuge on rooftops as the waters rose once again. By morning, more than 130 water rescues had been called in across the city.

(NOAA predicts heavy rainfall for Texas and Louisiana over the coming week. Image source: NOAA.)

But this particular extreme event may be a simple prelude for what’s to come as the remnants of Harvey sets its sights on the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coasts. Harvey is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm or weak hurricane over a very warm and moist Gulf of Mexico within the next 48 hours. Models then predict that it will combine its substantial moisture load with that of the frontal system responsible for such severe flooding in Missouri last night.

Already NOAA is predicting some very significant rainfall amounts over the coming days for the Texas and Louisiana coastal regions (see image above). And Harvey represents a considerable rainfall potential given the fact that it is expected to stall over Texas and Louisiana for the better part of 5 days. With regards to NOAA rainfall predictions, it is worth noting that extreme local precipitation values have significantly exceeded NOAA predictions recently in the case of the most severe thunderstorms.

(2 PM EST assessment of Harvey’s path and potential for restrengthening. Image source: The National Hurricane Center.)

One possible spoiler for Harvey reforming is an upper level low swirling just southeast of Texas. This low could rip Harvey apart. But if this happens, that system would tend to also direct Harvey’s moisture toward Texas, Louisiana and Alabama. In which case, strong rainfall potentials are also likely. However, the National Hurricane Center expects this upper level low and associated squalls to move toward the north and west — generating rainy conditions for Texas and Louisiana ahead of Harvey and creating space for a more powerful and heavily moisture laden storm to form.

Lower than normal precipitation totals in the region of Coastal Texas during the past couple of months may help to alleviate flood potential if the rains from Harvey remain on the somewhat lighter side (2-4 inches) and if the system continues to be disorganized. A more organized system would tend to bring heavier precipitation totals. However, it is worth noting that during recent years, much warmer than normal sea surface temperatures have combined with a warmer atmosphere to spike heavy rainfall totals. A result of human-forced climate change due to ongoing rampant fossil fuel burning.

Links:

NOAA

The National Hurricane Center

Historic Flooding Leaves One Dead

Over 130 Calls Made to Kansas City Fire Department Amid Life Threatening Flooding Overnight

Hat tip to Wharf Rat

The Present Threat to Coastal Cities From Antarctic and Greenland Melt

Seas around the world are rising now at a rate of about 3.3 millimeters per year. This rate of rise is faster than at any time in the last 2,800 years. It’s accelerating. And already the impacts are being felt in the world’s most vulnerable coastal regions.

(Rates of global sea level rise continue to quicken. This has resulted in worsening tidal flooding for coastal cities like Miami, Charleston, New Orleans and Virginia Beach. Image source: Ice Melt, Sea Level Rise, and Superstorms.)

Sea Level Rise and Worsening Extreme Rainfall are Already Causing Serious Problems

Last week, New Orleans saw pumps fail as a heavy thunderstorm inundated the city. This caused both serious concern and consternation among residents. Begging the question — if New Orleans pumps can’t handle the nascient variety of more powerful thunderstorms in the age of human-caused climate change, then what happens when a hurricane barrels in? The pumps, designed to handle 1.5 inch per hour rainfall amounts in the first hour and 1 inch per hour rainfall amounts thereafter were greatly over-matched when sections of the city received more than 2 inches of rainfall per hour over multiple hours.

Higher rates of precipitation from thunderstorms are becoming a more common event the world over as the hydrological cycle is amped up by the more than 1 degree Celsius of temperature increase that has already occurred since 1880. And when these heavy rainfall amounts hit coastal cities that are already facing rising seas, then pumps and drainage systems can be stressed well beyond their original design limits. The result, inevitably, is more flooding.

(Dr Eric Rignot, one of the world’s foremost glacial scientists, discusses the potential for multimeter sea level rise due to presently projected levels of warming in the range of 1.5 to 2 C by mid to late Century.)

New Orleans itself is already below sea level. And the land there is steadily subsiding into the Gulf of Mexico. Add sea level rise and worsening storms on top of that trend and the crisis New Orleans faces is greatly amplified.

All up and down the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts, climate change driven sea level rise and a weakening Gulf Stream are combining with other natural factors that can seriously amplify an ever-worsening trend toward more tidal flooding. It’s a situation that will continue to worsen as global rates of sea level rise keep ramping higher. And how fast seas rise will depend both on the amount of carbon that human beings ultimately dump into the Earth’s atmosphere and on how rapidly various glacial systems around the world respond to that insult (see discussion by Dr. Eric Rignot above).

Presently High and Rising Atmospheric Carbon Levels Imply Ultimately Catastrophic Sea Level Rise — How Soon? How Fast? Can We Mitigate Swiftly Enough to Prevent the Worst?

Presently, atmospheric carbon forcing is in the range of 490 parts per million CO2 equivalent. This heat forcing, using paleoclimate proxies from 5 to 30 million years ago, implies approximately 2 degrees Celsius of warming this Century and about 4 degrees Celsisus of warming long term. It also implies an ultimate sea level rise of between 60 and 180 feet over the long term. In other words, if atmospheric carbon levels are similar to those seen during the Miocene, then temperatures are also ultimately headed for those ranges. Soon to be followed by a similar range of sea level rise. In the nearer term, 1.5 to 2 C warming from the 2030s to late Century is enough to result in 20 to 30 feet of sea level rise.

Of course, various climate change mitigation actions could ultimately reduce that larger heat forcing and final related loss of glacial ice. But with carbon still accumulating in the atmosphere and with Trump and other politicians around the world seeking to slow or sabotage a transition away from fossil fuels, then it goes to follow that enacting such an aggressive mitigation will be very difficult to manage without an overwhelming resistance to such harmful policy stances.

(Antarctic ice loss through 2016. Video source: NASA.)

That said, warming and related sea level rise will tend to take some time to elapse. And the real question on many scientists’ minds is — how fast? Presently, we do see serious signs of glacial destabilization in both Greenland and West Antartica. These two very large piles of ice alone could contribute 34 feet of sea level rise if both were to melt entirely.

Meanwhile, East Antarctica has also recently shown some signs of movement toward glacial destabilization. Especially in the region of the Totten Glacier and the Cook Ice Shelf. But rates of progress toward glacial destabilization in these zones has, thus far, been slower than that seen in Greenland and West Antarctica. Present mass loss hot spots are in the area of the Thwaites Glacier of West Antarctica and around the western and southern margins of Greenland.

(Greenland ice loss through 2016. Video source: NASA.)

With global temperatures now exceeding 1 C and with these temperatures likely to exceed 1.5 C within the next two decades, it is certain that broader heat-based stresses to these various glacial systems will increase. And we are likely to see coincident melt rate acceleration as more glaciers become less stable. The result is that coastal flooding conditions will tend to follow a worsening trend — with the most vulnerable regions like the U.S. Gulf and East Coasts feeling the impact first. Unfortunately, there is risk that this trend will include the sudden acceleration of various glaciers into the ocean, which will coincide with rapid increases in global rates of sea level rise. In other words, the trend for sea level rise is less likely to be smooth and more likely to include a number of melt pulse spikes.

Such an overall trend including outlier risks paints a relatively rough picture for coastal city planners in the 1-3 decade timeframe. But on the multi-decade horizon there is a rising risk that sudden glacial destabilization — first in Greenland and West Antarctica and later in East Antarctica will put an increasing number of coastal cities permanently under water.

Rapid Mitigation Required to Reduce Risks

The only way to lower this risk is to rapidly reduce to zero the amount of carbon hitting the atmosphere from human sources while ultimately learning how to pull carbon out of the atmosphere. The present most rapid pathway for carbon emissions reductions involves an urgent build-out of renewable and non-carbon based energy systems to replace all fossil fuels with a focus on wind, solar, and electrical vehicle economies of scale and production chains. Added to various drives for sustainable cities and increasing efficiency, such a push could achieve an 80 percent or greater reduction in carbon emissions on the 2-3 decade timescale with net negative carbon emissions by mid Century. For cities on the coast, choosing whether or not to support such a set of actions is ultimately an existential one.

Links:

Fragmenting Prospects For Avoiding 2 C Warming

NASA Antarctic Ice Loss

Scientists Just Uncovered Another Troubling Fact About Antarctica’s Melting Ice

It Wasn’t Even a Hurricane, But Heavy Rains Flooded New Orleans as Pumps Faltered

Why Seas are Rising Faster in Miami

Miocene Relative Sea Level

Temperature on Planet Earth

Ice Melt, Sea Level Rise, and Superstorms

Intensifying Equatorial Rains: 3.3 Million Afflicted by Flooding in India and Bangladesh as Hundreds Lose Lives to Landslides from Sierra Leone to Nepal

There’s something wrong with the rain these days. For many regions of the globe, when the rain does fall, it more and more often comes with an abnormally fierce intensity.

This increasing severity of heavy rainfall events is just one aspect of human-forced climate change through fossil fuel burning. For as the Earth warms, both the rate of evaporation and precipitation increases. And as atmospheric moisture loading and convection increase coordinate with rising temperatures, so do the potential peak intensities of the most powerful storms.

(Climate and extreme weather news August 13 through 15)

Sierra Leone — More than 300 Dead, 600 Missing After Deadly Mudslide

This past week, in Sierra Leone — already one of the wettest regions of the globe at this time of year — a very heavy rainfall event generated a severe mudslide that ripped a huge swath of devastation through Freetown. 3,000 people were immediately rendered homeless by the great rush of mud, rock, and soil. But more tragically in excess of 300 people are feared dead with 600 still missing.

This single event represents the deadliest natural disaster on record for Sierra Leone — which also suffered a flood that killed 103 people in 2009. According to news reports, the region in which this disaster occurred has experienced 20 inches more rain than usual over the 30 day period from July 15 through August 15. A total amount of rainfall in a single month period that’s now in the range of 50 inches. Clearly, the surrounding lands could not maintain integrity under the force of such a prolonged deluge. And unfortunately one of the succumbing hillsides let loose into a valley settlement.

(Heavy thunderstorms of Freetown on August 14th. Image source: NASA and Weather Underground.)

A statement by Weather Underground’s Bob Henson provides further climate context for this disaster:

The heaviest downpours in many parts of the globe have become heavier in recent decades, a trend attributed to human-produced climate change and expected to continue. A study led by Christopher Taylor (UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology), published this spring in the journal Nature, finds that the Sahel’s most intense mesoscale convective systems (organized clusters of thunderstorms) have tripled in frequency since 1982. The recovery of Sahel rainfall since the 1980s only explains a small part of this trend, according to the study authors. They argue that Saharan warming is helping to intensify convection within the MCSs through increased wind shear and changes to the Saharan air layer. “The meridional gradient is projected to strengthen throughout the twenty-first century, suggesting that the Sahel will experience particularly marked increases in extreme rain,” the study concludes.

Pradesh and Nepal Landslides and Floods Kill Over 100 More

Severe rains also on August 14th unleashed a mudslide in Pradesh India that knocked two buses off a cliff — resulting in the tragic loss of 46 lives. The resulting landslide also injured 5 other passengers even as it buried numerous homes along its path.

Across the Bay of Bengal in Nepal flooding and landslides resulted in the loss of 62 lives as 30 districts reported severe conditions. There, rains displaced 1,500 families, destroyed 305 homes, and damaged more than 15,000 other dwellings. Dozens of Nepali roads have been blocked, a school has collapsed, and an airport has been forced to close as severe storms inundated the region.

In India and Bangladesh, 3.3 Million People are Affected by Flooding

In the Indian state of Assam, 84 people have lost their lives due to a massive flood that has now affected 2 million people across 29 districts. 2,734 villages have flooded and 183,584 people have been forced to relocate to one of 700 refugee camps. Meanwhile, across the state, some 3,830 water rescues have occurred. Dozens of roads and bridges have been washed out as rivers rise from moderate to unprecedented flood stages.

(Assam floods on August 14. Image source: Government of India and Floodlist.)

Finally, in Bangladesh, record rainfall has pushed rivers to some of the highest levels ever recorded. The result has been the forced displacement of 368,000 people to 970 temporary shelters as 1.3 million are afflicted by flooding. Tragically, 27 Bangladeshis have also lost their lives due to the extreme flooding. Rainfall rates of up to ten inches per day are contributing to the severe flooding even as water from floods further upstream in India and Nepal are flowing into Bangladesh river systems.

Conditions in Context — Very Severe Equatorial Rains

Overall, these various events may appear to occur separately. However, they are all associated with a very severe Equatorial rain pattern developing from Africa through Southeast Asia and stretching into the Atlantic inter-tropical-convergence zone during 2017. The apparently increased thunderstorm activity is now impacting everything from the intensity of monsoonal rains over Southeast Asia, the severity of storms in the Sahel of Africa, and the early formation of tropical cyclones off Cape Verde during August.

These heavy rainfall features are arguably linked to the climate-change based intensification of the hydrological cycle and, particularly, to the increasing intensity of Equatorial thunderstorms. The overall climate and weather trend for the larger region should thus be noted and these various related events should not be viewed in isolation.

Links:

Weather Underground

Floodlist

NASA

Climate and Extreme Weather News

Hat tip to Shawn Redmond

Hat tip to Suzanne

No El Nino, But July of 2017 was the Hottest on Record. So What the Hell is Going on?

According to NASA’s GISS global temperature monitoring service, July of 2017 was 0.83 C hotter than the NASA 20th Century baseline (1.05 C hotter than 1880s). That’s the hottest July ever recorded in the 137 year global climate record.

In the Pacific, ENSO conditions remain neutral. And since 2014-2016 featured one of the strongest El Ninos on record, you’d expect global temperatures to back off a bit from what should have been a big spike in the larger warming trend. So what happened?

(Top image shows July of 2017 global temperature anomalies compared to July of 2016 global temperature anomalies [bottom image]. July of 2016 was cooling into a weak La Nina relative to one of the strongest El Ninos on record. This year, ENSO neutral conditions prevail coordinate with rather strong polar amplification in the Southern Hemisphere as temperatures in the Southern Ocean off West Antarctica hit an 8 C warm temperature anomaly [!!]. Images provided by NASA GISS.)

During July of 2016, the world was backing away from a very strong El Nino and heading into the mild global temperature trough of a weak La Nina. Cooler conditions in the Equatorial Pacific were starting to put a bit of a damper on the extreme global temperature departures that, earlier in the year, hit as high as 1.55 C above 1880s averages during February.

The La Nina lag during July of 2016 was enough to pull global surface temperatures down to 1.04 C above 1880s averages. However, the added heat pumped out into the system by both fossil fuel produced greenhouse gasses and the shift to strong El Nino appears to have generated a step change in the global temperature regime. So despite a weak La Nina dominating during fall of 2016, global temperatures remained in a range of 1.06 to 1.21 C above 1880s averages during August through December.

2017 Still Trending Toward Second Hottest on Record

Moving into 2017, overall global temperatures have backed off from the extreme heat seen during 2016. But only a little.

Adding in the record hot July at 1.05 C above 1880s averages, we find that 2017, so far is 1.16 C hotter than 1880s overall for the first seven months. That’s just 0.05 C shy of the record global heat that appeared in 2016. Not really much of a back-off at all.

July’s own record wasn’t a very impressive warm departure from 2016 — beating it by just 0.01 C. But what it does reveal is that there is an extraordinary amount of heat roaming the surface airs and waters of our world. And since all that extra heat will tend to resist cooling into Northern Hemisphere winter as it transfers poleward, we can probably expect that relative temperature anomalies will again rise as we move away from Northern Hemisphere summer. With departures likely continuing to exceed 1.05 or even 1.1 C above 1880s for most months going forward.

Already, early GFS model runs indicate that August of 2017 will likely be warmer than July. And this month might even come close to challenging the 1.21 C above 1880s averages achieved during 2016. However, using GFS global averages as an indicator is not a perfect oracle. So we wait on the August numbers from GISS and NOAA a month from now for final confirmation.

Furthermore, we do have a relatively weak cool Kelvin wave rippling along beneath the Equatorial Pacific at this time. This wave should shift the ENSO pattern to the cool side of neutral by Northern Hemisphere fall. A pattern that should also tend to nudge overall global temperatures downward. Recent falls in the north, though, have tended to exhibit very extreme polar warming. And a similar trend this year would tend to offset any Pacific Equatorial cooling. Lastly, the cooler ENSO neutral pattern is likely to still be a warmer general forcing than the weak La Nina that appeared during late 2016. So there is at least some potential that some months during fall of 2017 will be warmer than those during fall of 2016.

Considering these trends, the best available predictive analysis from NASA shows that 2017 is likely to be about 1.1 C warmer than 1880s or the second hottest year on record globally overall. NASA’s Gavin Schmidt gives this range a 77 percent likelihood of bearing out. But note the error bar in Gavin Schmidt’s above tweet. In other words, the presently far more unstable climate appears to be quite capable of serving up some relatively nasty surprises.

Links:

NASA GISS

NOAA ENSO Forecast and Analysis

Global and Regional Climate Anomalies

Hat tip to Redsky

Hat tip to Joe Romm

Area Burned in Severe Northwest Territory Wildfires Doubles in Just One Day

In just one day, an area of land covering 1,860 square miles of the Northwest Territory has burned. That’s a zone 50 percent larger than the entire state of Rhode Island going up in smoke over just one 24 hour period. And as you can see from the GOES satellite animation below, the volume of smoke being produced by fires burning in a permafrost thaw region is quite extreme:

*****

Over the past week, the Arctic and sub-Arctic Northwest Territories (NWT) of Canada have been baking under an intense late-summer heatwave. At a time when NWT temperatures should be cooling down from July peaks, most days of the past seven have seen the mercury rise into the upper 80s and lower-to-middle 90s (Fahrenheit).

These 10-35 degree (F) above average temperatures sweltered coniferous forests, peat bogs and thawing permafrost. The high temperatures also unleashed Arctic and sub-Arctic thunderstorms. A new breed of weather for this typically cool zone. One that has been enabled by a human-forced warming of our world through fossil fuel burning — causing temperatures in the Arctic to warm twice as fast as the rest of the globe.

(Extreme heat in the range of 95 degrees F [35 C] blankets the Northwest Territories on August 11, 2017 — drying vegetation and promoting wildfire producing lightning strikes. Image source: Earth Nullschool.)

As lightning strikes rained down over forests and peatlands unprepared for such intense warmth and energy, large fires began to spark. These fires were not yet as visible from the satellite as their, at the time, larger British Columbia brethren (lower left in the image below). But they were in a far northern region that has a recent if rather anomalous history of rapid fire expansion. And already, wispy plumes of smoke were becoming visible even in the wider-angle satellite shots.

Up until August 7th, fires in the Northwest Territory region of Canada had been a bit moderate compared to recent years. In total, about 330,000 hectares had burned throughout 2017. This put the region slightly above the 25 year average for fires, but well behind the more intense rates of burning seen in recent years. As of yesterday (August 14th), this number had climbed to 442,000 acres — exceeding the 15 year average, but still behind the more intense 5 year average.

(Intense Northwest Territory Wildfires begin to spark on August 7th of 2017. These fires are visible near center frame. Note intense fires burning in British Columbia at lower left. For reference, bottom edge of frame is approx 1,200 miles. Image Source: NASA Worldview.)

At this time, however, the satellite imagery was starting to look quite ominous (see image below). Very large and intense rings of fire were starting to expand north of Uranium City. And these fires were casting vast thick and inky plumes of smoke up and over much of Northern Canada. Their visible size and intensity hinted that something pretty extreme was happening on the ground.

As the fires appeared to explode in size, the various wildfire monitors began to check in. In just one day, according to the most recent NWT Current Fire Situation Report, these massive fires more than doubled the total amount of land burned with 924,000 hectares now listed as consumed. This is roughly 3,565 square miles — or about the size of Delaware and Rhode Island combined. With an area fifty percent larger than the size of Rhode Island (1,860 square miles) being consumed in just one day.

(Very intense wildfires burning on August 14 rapidly expanded to consume a section of territory larger than Rhode Island in just one day. For reference, bottom edge of frame is approx. 1,000 miles. Image source: NASA Worldview.)

Meanwhile, land area burned for the Northwest Territory is now above the 5 year average. With these fires burning so intensely, and with hot conditions still on tap for next 48 hours, this already large burn area could continue to rapidly expand.

Much of this burning is occurring along a vast line of wildfires stretching for 200 miles south of Great Slave Lake. In other words, this is a fire line long enough to stretch the distance between Norfolk, Virginia and Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. And the very dense smoke plumes being emitted by these amazingly large fires are likely to ultimately encircle the globe.

(Two hundred mile line of fires south of Great Slave Lake has completely blocked out satellite visual of the lake from orbit. Image source: NASA Worldview.)

Rainfall and cooler conditions by Friday might tamp down these blazes. But the situation at this time appears to be quite severe. Thankfully, unlike the terrible fires that have consumed hundreds of homes and forced tens of thousands to evacuate in British Columbia this summer or the Fort McMurray Fire of 2016 which forced the emptying of an entire city, these massive Northwest Territory fires are presently burning in remote areas.

However, the rapid expansion, large size and vast smoke plumes of these fires bear a grim testament to the fact that the fire regime has vastly changed for the worse in the Arctic nation of Canada. A situation that will continue to dramatically intensify so long as fossil fuels keep being burned.

(UPDATED)

Links:

Earth Nullschool

NASA Worldview

Canadian Interagency Fire Center Situation Report

NWT Current Fire Situation Report

Hat tip to Shawn Redmond

Hat tip to Spike

Nature — Plants Belched 3 Billion Tons of Carbon into Atmosphere During Monster El Nino of 2014-2016

El Nino. This periodic warming of the Equatorial Pacific has long been known to trigger droughts, wildfires, and higher temperatures throughout the tropics. And, according to a new satellite data based report out of the scientific journal Nature, these very same El Nino feedbacks combined with record global heat to squeeze a massive volume of carbon out of the world’s tropical forests during 2014-2016. From the report:

The monster El Niño weather pattern of 2014–16 caused tropical forests to burp up 3 billion tonnes of carbon, according to a new analysis. That’s equivalent to nearly 20% of the emissions produced during the same period by burning fossil fuels and making cement.

Global Warming + El Nino Sparked Massive Fires, Droughts and Heatwaves in the Tropics During 2014-2016…

The monster El Nino of 2014 to 2016 created serious disruptions to the world’s weather and climate patterns. Emerging during a time when human-forced global warming was rapidly ramping up, this strong natural variability feature generated a severe heat spike in the tropical regions. With the heat near the Equator already at high tide due to human-caused warming, this very strong El Nino produced some of the most severe heatwaves, droughts and wildfires ever experienced during modern times in places like Brazil, Africa, and Southeast Asia.

(Massive Southeast Asia wildfires during a record warm El Nino like these in Borneo during September of 2015 helped to squeeze 3 billion tons of carbon out of tropical forests. A feedback feature related to El Nino and human-caused climate change. Image source: Earth Observatory.)

The Amazon Rainforest, according to a seperate study, experienced record-breaking heat and drought — with the area of drought stretching 20 percent further than during past El Nino years. Temperatures in the Amazon were 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer than during the extreme El Nino event of 1997-1998. Both signals that a climate change + El Nino interaction was amplifying the severity of impacts to this crucial tropical forest system.

In Africa and Southeast Asia, the heat was similarly intense — producing numerous 30-100 year or worse droughts, fires, and record high temperatures. Another signal that this harmful interaction was in full swing.

… This, in Turn, Generated a Major Release of Forest-Stored Carbon …

As the droughts and heatwaves were baking deep, and as the forests were stunting, burning, or exhaling more CO2, high overhead, one of Earth’s climate sentinel satellites — the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 — was dutifully taking measurements. And what it found was that all this extra tropical heat resulted in a severe loss of soil and vegetative carbon. That the heat and droughts were sparking forest fires, causing stress, and stunting forest growth. That these processes were dumping prodigious volumes of carbon back into the Earth’s atmosphere.

From the study:

Measurements taken by NASA’s Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) satellite, which measures the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, suggest that El Niño boosted emissions in three ways. A combination of high temperatures and drought increased the number and severity of wildfires in southeast Asia, while drought stunted plant growth in the Amazon rainforest, reducing the amount of carbon it absorbed. And in Africa, a combination of warming temperatures and near-normal rainfall increased the rate at which forests exhaled CO2.

Overall, the Nature study notes that 3 billion tons of carbon were added to the atmosphere as a result of harm done to forests and soils during this particularly hot El Nino period.

… Which Helped to Spike Annual Rates of Atmospheric CO2 Accumulation

(Record rates of atmospheric CO2 accumulation during 2015 and 2016 correspond with large belches of carbon from tropical forests as a result of severe heat. Image source: NOAA ESRL.)

Elsewhere, this added burst of carbon did not go unnoticed. And measurements from NOAA’s Earth Systems Research Laboratory indicates that rates of atmospheric carbon accumulation sped up as El Nino and global warming based heat baked the tropical lands. During 2015, rates of atmospheric carbon accumulation accelerated to their fastest pace on record — growing at 3.03 parts per million per year. And in 2016, the second fastest rate of atmospheric CO2 accumulation on record was recorded — 2.98 parts per million per year. This compares to an average 2.2 parts per million annual accumulation that’s primarily driven by fossil fuel burning.

So what we have here is evidence that a heat and El Nino based carbon feedback occurred in the tropics during 2014-2016 and that this feedback resulted in a significant spike in the rate of atmospheric CO2 accumulation even as human based carbon emissions were leveling off (at record high ranges). With El Nino fading, that tropical carbon feedback should abate. But we shouldn’t allow ourselves to breathe too easy. For with Earth now in the range of 1 to 1.25 C warmer than preindustrial times, carbon stored in soil, forests, permafrost and oceans is now being placed under increasing heat related stress. And continuing to burn fossil fuels keeps adding to the heat gain that further increases the risk of a warmth-amplifying release from all of these stores.

Links:

Massive El Nino Sent Greenhouse Gas Emissions Soaring

Record Heat and Drought Seen in Amazon During 2015-2016 El Nino

NASA’s Earth Observatory

NOAA ESRL

Hat tip to mlparrish

Hat tip to Spike

Bad Heat Rising: 4 C Global Warming Brings Super Heatwaves Packing 131 Degree (F) “Apparent Temperatures”

On the present emissions pathway, it’s likely that the world will hit 4 degrees Celsius warming by 2100. And this level of warming will be enough to bring on heatwaves so hot that staying outside for even brief periods will be deadly. Such unimaginably severe heatwaves will affect heavily populated regions such as Eastern Europe, the U.S. East Coast, coastal China, India, and South America with biennial frequency.

(Probability that summer heat index values will exceed 40 C [104 F] and 55 C [131 F] under 1.5, 2 and 4 C warming. Note that biennial frequency of 55 C heat indexes over large regions under 4 C warming implies that strong heatwaves would be considerably more severe. Image source: Superheatwaves of 55 C Emerge if Global Warming Continues.)

These were the findings of a ground-breaking new report produced by Europe’s Joint Research Center. The report notes that many of these heatwaves will combine very hot air and high humidity to produce deadly conditions — implying wet bulb readings in the range of 35 degrees Celsius or the threshold for human survivability over densely populated regions. Such high levels of heat would be both crippling and life-threatening — bringing activity in these areas to a grinding halt, spiking cooling based energy demand, and making it impossible to stay in non climate controlled environments for more than very brief periods.

The report predicts that the rising global temperatures, due to fossil fuel burning, will bring about this new brand of super heatwave afflicting many of today’s most populated cities:

However, if temperatures rise to 4°C a severe scenario is on the horizon. Scientists predict that a new super-heatwave will appear with apparent temperature peaking at above 55°C– a level critical for human survival.  It will affect densely populated areas such as USA’s East coast, coastal China, large parts of India and South America. Under this global warming scenario Europe is likely to suffer annual heatwaves with apparent temperature of above 40°C regularly while some regions of Eastern Europe may be hit by heatwaves of above 55°C.

55 degrees Celsius translates to 131 degrees Fahrenheit. Today’s Death Valley summer temperatures typically range between 115 and 120 F. By comparison, the hottest temperature ever recorded on Earth, according to Christopher C. Burt from Weather Underground is presently 129.2 degrees Fahrenheit. But under continued fossil fuel regimes, apparent temperatures or heat indexes exceeding those very high values will occur with a very high regularity. That means it will feel like it’s hotter than Death Valley. Hotter than today’s highest ever recorded temperatures.

(Heatwaves like the one dubbed ‘Lucifer’ in Europe this year are just a mild foreshadowing of what’s to come if humans continue burning fossil fuels. Image source: Tropical Tidbits.)

Such heatwaves would regularly dwarf the impacts of today’s multi-billion dollar disasters like the heatwave dubbed Lucifer that impacted Europe this year. But the study authors note that even their worrying estimates may be conservative.

The report’s press release goes on to state that:

According to the study, the effect of relative humidity on heatwaves’ magnitude and peak might be underestimated in current research. The results of the study support the need for urgent mitigation and adaptation action to address the impacts of heatwaves, and indicate regions where new adaptation measures might be necessary to cope with heat stress.

Links:

Superheatwaves of 55 C Emerge if Global Warming Continues

Tropical Tidbits

India and China Building Solar Like Gangbusters, Electric Revolution Continues as GM Sells EV for $5,300 in China, Tesla Plans 700,000 Model 3s Per Year

If we’re going to halt destructive carbon emissions now hitting the atmosphere, then the world is going to have to swiftly stop burning oil, gas and coal. And the most effective and economic pathway for achieving this removal of harmful present and future atmospheric carbon emissions is a rapid renewable energy build-out to replace fossil fuel energy coupled by increases in energy efficiency.

(To halt and reverse climate change related damages, fossil fuel based greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere need to stop.)

This week, major advances in the present renewable energy build and introduction rate were reported. Chiefly, India and China are rapidly adding new solar panels to their grid, the monthly rate of global EV sales surpassed 100,000 in June, GM is offering a very inexpensive electrical vehicle in China, and Tesla has ramped up plans for Model 3 EV production from 500,000 vehicles per year to 700,000 vehicles per year.

India and China Solar Gangbusters

In the first half of 2017, India is reported to have built 4.8 gigawatts (GW) of new solar energy capacity. This construction has already exceeded all 2016 additions. The country is presently projected to build more than 10 GW of new solar energy capacity by year-end. Large solar additions are essential to India meeting its goal of having 100 GW of solar electrical generation available by 2022. It is also crucial for reducing carbon emissions from fossil fuel fired power plants (coal and gas).

(Total solar capacity in India could hit 30 GW by end 2018. India will need to add solar more rapidly if it is to achieve its goal of 100 GW by 2022. Image source: Clean Technica.)

Further east, China added 24.4 Gigawatts of new solar energy in just the first half of this year. This pushed China’s total solar energy generating capacity to a staggering 101 GW. It also puts China firmly in a position to surpass last year’s strong rate of solar growth of 34 GW. China’s previous goal was to achieve 105 GW of solar production by 2020. One it will hit three and a half years ahead of schedule. China now appears to be on track to overwhelm that goal by achieving between 190 and 230 GW of solar generation by decade’s end.

(China has already overwhelmed its 2020 target for added solar capacity. Recalculating based on present build rates finds that end 2020 solar generation levels are likely to hit between 190 and 230 GW for this global economic powerhouse. Image source: China National Energy Administration.)

Such strong solar growth numbers in traditional coal-burning regions provides some hope that carbon emissions growth rates in these countries will continue to level off or possibly start to fall in the near future. Adding in ambitious wind energy and electrical vehicle build-outs in these regions provides synergy to the larger trend. If an early carbon emissions plateau were to be achieved due to rapid renewable energy build-outs in China and India, it would be very helpful in reducing overall levels of global warming during the 21st Century.

GM’s $5,300 EV for the Chinese Market

Adding to the trend of growing movement toward an energy switch in Asia this week was GM’s introduction of a small, medium-range electrical vehicle for the Chinese auto market. GM is partnering with China’s Baojun to produce the E100. A small EV that’s about the size of the U.S. Smart Car. The E100 has about a 96 mile all-electric range, a 62 mph top speed, and goes for $14,000 dollars before China’s generous EV incentives. After incentives, a person in China can purchase the vehicle for $5,300. GM states that 5,000 buyers registered to purchase the first 200 E100s hitting the market last month, while a second batch of 500 vehicles will be made available soon.

100,000 Electrical Vehicle Sales Per Month by Mid 2017

Globally, electrical vehicle sales have ramped up to 100,000 per month during June of 2017. This growth is being driven primarily by increased sales volumes in China, India, Japan, Australia, Europe and the U.S. as more and more attractive EV models are becoming available and as governments seek to limit the sale of petroleum-burning vehicles in some regions.

(Projected growth rates for EV sales appear likely to surpass present projections through 2020. Image source: Cleantechnica.)

Meanwhile range, recharge rates, acceleration, and other capabilities for these vehicles continue to rapidly improve. This compares to fossil fuel vehicles which have been basically stuck in plateauing performance ranges for decades. 2017 will represent the first year when sales of all EV models globally surpass 1 million per year. With a possible doubling to tripling of EV production through 2020.

Telsa Aiming for 700,000 Per Year Model 3 Sales

2018 will likely see continued growth as new vehicles like the Model 3, the Chevy Bolt, and Toyota Prius Prime provide more competitive and attractive offerings. This past month, the Chevy Bolt logged more than 1,900 vehicles sold in the U.S. in one month. If GM continues to ramp production, marketing, and availability of this high-quality, long range electrical vehicle, the model could easily sell between 3,000 and 5,000 per month to the U.S. market. Another vehicle — the plug in electric hybrid Toyota Prius Prime — is also capable of achieving high sales rates in the range of 5,000 per month or more on the U.S. market due to a combined high quality and low price so long as production for this model also rapidly ramps up.

But the big outlier here is the Tesla Model 3. By end 2017, Tesla is aiming to ramp Model 3 production to 5,000 vehicles per week. It plans to hit more than 40,000 vehicles per month by end of 2018. And, according to Elon Musk’s recent announcement, will ultimately aim to achieve 700,000 Model 3 sales per year. If such a rapid ramp appears, the Model 3 along with other increasingly attractive EVs could hit close to 2 million per year annual combined sales in 2018 and surpass 3 million at some time between 2019 and 2020. This is well ahead of past projections of around 2.2 million EV sales per year by 2020. Representing yet another early opportunity to reduce massive global carbon emissions coming from oil, gas, and coal.

Links:

India Installs 4.8 GW of Solar During First Half of 2017

China’s New 190 GW Solar Guiding Opinion Wows

China Could Reach 230 GW Solar by end 2020

GM Should Bring Baojun E100 EV to USA

EV News for the Month

Joint Venture for Baojun E100

Model 3 Annual Demand Could Surpass 700,000

Fire in the Land of Ice: Massive Wildfires Rage Over Greenland and Siberia

Like never before, regions we typically associate with cold and ice are being over-run by wildfires. It’s a situation brought on by human-caused climate change. For our continued burning of fossil fuels is causing the Arctic to warm twice as fast as the rest of the globe. Under this oppressive influx of heat, the permafrost is thawing. And the fragile plants, frozen lands, and soils dependent on much cooler conditions simply cannot cope. Increasingly, and on greater and greater scales, they are burning.

(Large Greenland fire captured by NASA’s Earth Observatory on August 7th.)

This past week, an outlandish wildfire ignited about 100 miles southwest of Ilulissat near the western coast of Greenland. The fire, visible by satellite, cast a long smoke plume even as it exploded into fierce intensity. The odd blaze subsequently generated a rash of expert chatter among Arctic observers on twitter even as news sources like NPR scrambled for contextual information.

Due to typically very low fire incidence, Greenland lacks a national forest fire information center. However, widespread satellite reports and news based observation provide a pretty clear context for this odd event. According to news reports from NPR, the fire itself is a complex of multiple blazes — the largest of which has expanded to 3,000 acres. It’s a massive forest fire. And it’s exceptionally odd seeing such a blaze light up in typically-frozen Greenland.

(Time lapse of massive Greenland wildfire provided by Meteos.)

The fire ignited as temperatures rose to near 70 degrees (F) across the region. A range that is well above average for this Arctic zone. And brisk, down-sloping winds likely helped to speed the fire’s initial rapid expansion.

Fires do occur at times in Greenland. But they are usually rare and small. This year’s fires, on the other hand, have been exceptional. Preliminary satellite observation indicates that as much as 8 times the typical number of active fires have ignited so far in Greenland during 2017. And there is every indication that this particular fire complex is the largest ever recorded on an island that is mostly blanketed by thousands of feet of ice.

(Analysis of active wildfire pixels in Greenland satellite analysis indicates a substantially increased rate of burning in 2017.)

The fire itself is burning through peatlands — which contain deep, carbon-rich soils. In many regions, thawed permafrost ultimately becomes peat. In addition, peat itself is very sensitive to climate change related warming. For as exceptional heat dries the peat, it becomes a deep, dense fuel for fires. When the fires ultimately come, they can eat far into the peat soils — burning 3 feet or more beneath the ground.

Though not as bad as fossil fuel burning for the climate system, peat fires do provide a troubling amplifying feedback to human-caused climate change if they become widespread and if large permafrost zones thaw into peat and subsequently burn. One researcher noted to the New York Times last year that: “It’s carbon that has accumulated over several thousands of years. If it were to be released, the global CO2 concentration would be much higher.”

(Fires burning near the melting Greenland Ice Sheet are likely in a recently thawed permafrost zone. Permafrost contains a massive carbon store that if released will further exacerbate human-caused warming. Wildfires are one mechanism promoting that release. And as Arctic lands thaw and warm, more large fires are popping up across the Arctic. Image source: NASA Worldview.)

Jessica L. McCarty, an Assistant Professor of Geography at Miami University provides further context regarding the massive Greenland fires:

“They are likely occurring in areas of degraded permafrost, which are predicted to have high thaw rates between now and 2050 with some evidence of current melt near Sisimiut. Fires in the High Northern Latitudes release significant CO2, CH4, N20, and black carbon. A fire this close to the Greenland Ice Shelf is likely to deposit additional black carbon on the ice, further speeding up the melt.”

Siberian Wildfires Now Extremely Intense

In many places throughout the Arctic, rapidly warmed and dried peatlands, forests and previously frozen permafrost zones are also burning. In Siberia the inky smoke plumes from massive fires today stretch for nearly 2,000 miles. Numerous fire complexes that dwarf the odd Greenland blaze are plainly visible in the satellite picture.

(The smoke plume in this image would blanket most of Greenland. Massive wildfires belch giant plumes of inky smoke over Siberia and the Arctic Ocean on August 9th. For reference, bottom edge of frame is 1,200 miles. Image source: NASA Worldview.)

The fires come with extreme heat along a high pressure ridge zone stretching from Lake Baikal all the way to the shores of the Arctic Ocean. Today, temperatures in this Arctic and near Arctic region are ranging from 80 to 90 degrees Fahrenheit or as much as 35 degrees (F) above average.

With so much Arctic warming and thawing now ongoing, massive fires have become a frequent occurrence during summertime in Siberia recently. And this year, Russia has resorted to cloud seeding in an apparently fruitless attempt to suppress the enormous blazes.

Most of today’s fires are burning in Yakutia — which contains one of the largest global stores of permafrost carbon in the world. During recent years, permafrost has more and more rapidly thawed through this zone — providing a larger and larger store of peat-like fuels for the kinds of fires we are seeing today.

Links:

NASA Worldview

A Massive Wildfire is Now Burning in Greenland

Wildfire in Greenland

Wildfires are Burning in Greenland

Greenland Hit by Largest Wildfire on Record

Making Rain to Extinguish Wildfires

Hat tip to Andy in San Diego

Hat tip to Vic

Hat tip to Greg

Denying the Storm: Climate Change Report Findings the Trump Administration Doesn’t Want You to Know About

Yesterday, the New York Times published the final draft of a broad-based U.S. climate change report. And given the fact that the Trump Administration, brimming with politically-contrived climate change denial, is still pushing full steam toward a reckless withdraw from the Paris Climate Summit, we’re pretty confident that it’s hot information they don’t want you to get your hands on.

The report carries with it a monumental scientific gravitas. A level of credibility that Trump, even in his wildest fantasies, couldn’t hope to achieve. It includes a culmination of research coming from thousands of peer-reviewed studies resulting in the accumulated work of tens of thousands of scientists. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) served as the lead government agency conducting the report. Representatives from three other federal agencies joined with NOAA along with a team of 54 scientist authors and reviewers drawing from both public and private sector institutional knowledge in compiling the report.

The 673 page report represents a massive body of the latest scientific findings on climate change. It includes numerous key advances in understanding which we will take a shot at briefly highlighting for you here.

Humans Are the Primary Cause of Warming by a Huge Margin

The key finding of the report is that humans are causing the Earth to warm very rapidly. The study noted a 95 to 100 percent likelihood that human activity produced the approximate 0.85 C warming since the mid 20th Century and the 0.7 C warming since 1986. For the U.S., the report finds that recent decades have been warmer than any time within the last 1500 years. Meanwhile, it forecasts that future decades will at least be the warmest experienced in tens of thousands to millions of years.

(Tens of thousands of climate scientists agree — the considerable warming trend we’ve seen since the 1880s has been caused by human emissions. Image source: Climate Report.)

The report goes on to state that there is no convincing line of scientific evidence that provides a cause for this warming other than human emissions. That the increasingly accurate observations of solar and volcanic activity reveal only very minor nudges to the climate system compared to the vast heat-trapping influence of human-emitted greenhouse gasses. Meanwhile, though natural variability influences like El Nino and La Nina have effects on climate over months and years, the global impact of these natural sources greatly diminish over the course of the decades long warming regime that is now well established.

Future Warming is Locked in, But it Can be Dramatically Reduced by Cutting Carbon Emissions

Overall, the future isn’t looking too good. Because of past and current human emissions (coal, oil, and gas burning), the report finds that global climate change is projected to continue throughout this Century and beyond. Rapid cuts to greenhouse gas emissions, according to the study, were needed to have a chance of limiting warming to 2 C this Century. But the study found that even an immediate stabilization at present levels of atmospheric greenhouse gasses by ceasing present emissions would result in 0.6 C additional warming compared to recent decades. Longer term, the study points to a necessity that atmospheric CO2, methane, and other greenhouse gasses fall below present levels to meet the goals of preventing 2 C warming over the long term.

Continued emissions result in considerably more warming, according to the study, with temperatures hitting as high as 5 C or more above 1901 to 1960 averages if policies like Trump’s result in renewed increases in fossil fuel burning. What this means is that we can considerably limit the amount of damage caused by human-forced climate change if we rapidly cut emissions in the near term. But if we fail to do that, and Trump is leading us down this more dangerous path by killing the Clean Power Plan and backing out of the Paris Climate Summit, then temperatures will rise into extraordinarily hot and harmful ranges.

The study finds with high confidence that we presently remain on the higher emissions scenario pathways excepting a pause in emissions increases during 2014 and 2015. The study also finds that present rates of greenhouse gas emissions reductions are not yet in line with the goals of the Paris Climate Accord.

Extreme Weather is Becoming More Common and More Attributable to Human Caused Climate Change

Perhaps the most important new takeaway from the report is a developing clearer view of the impact of present warming on severe weather events. The report finds that many temperature and precipitation extremes are becoming more common. That the number of high temperature records over the past twenty years greatly exceeds the number of low temperature records. And that heavy precipitation events have increased in both frequency and intensity. Much evidence has been found for a human-caused influence on soil moisture deficits due to evaporation that leads to more rapid drought intensification. And the incidence of large fires in the Western United States has increased significantly since the 1980s and is expected to increase further.

The study also finds that Northern Hemisphere snow cover and water held in snow has declined. That there has been a decrease in snowstorm frequency along the southern margins of snowy areas. That the Arctic is losing more than 3.5 percent of its sea ice coverage every decade and that September sea ice extent is declining by more than 10 percent per decade. That Arctic land ice losses are also accelerating. It notes a contested scientific linkage between the increased severity of winter storms and a rapid observed warming in the Arctic. The study also identifies changes in tornado frequency and notes a possible linkage between thunderstorm wind intensity, increased convection, hail and climate change. Moreover, the study finds a global intensification of thunderstorms overall as the world has warmed. Tropical cyclone peak intensity is expected to ramp up even as typical cyclone formation regimes are altered.

Perhaps more disturbing is the fact that the study identifies an emerging understanding that human-caused climate change is starting to affect larger natural variability based systems like El Nino, the North Atlantic Oscillation, the North Pacific Oscillation, the Pacific North American Pattern, the Jet Stream, the size of the Tropics, atmospheric circulation patterns, rivers of moisture and storm tracks to varying degrees and with varying degrees of certainty or uncertainty. These systems not only play a major role in present global weather patterns, but our understanding of how they operate is also critical to our ability to predict weather. So climate change based alterations in these larger systems creates higher levels of uncertainty with regards to extreme weather risks.

The key takeaway of all this being that:

Some extremes have already become more frequent, intense, or of longer duration, and many extremes are expected to increase or worsen, presenting substantial challenges for built, agricultural, and natural systems.

Harmful Impacts to Oceans are on the Rise

Oceans, another key aspect of the health of the Earth’s life support system, according to the study, are warming, rising, becoming more acidic, and risk becoming stratified as they lose oxygen.

The study found that the oceans have absorbed 93 percent of the excess heat produced by human greenhouse gas emissions. That this added heat is having a number of serious effects. For one, the rate of sea level rise was found to be faster than at any time in the past 2,800 years. That end Century projections for sea level rise are heavily dependent on future emissions and range from 1 to 8 feet in the study.

The study finds that even present rates of sea level rise have resulted in significant increases in the incidence of coastal flooding. That tidal flooding events has multiplied by 5-10 times the rate observed in the 1960s overall and that the vulnerable Atlantic and Gulf coasts have seen an increase in tidal flooding that is now 25 times times 1960s values due to warming-related sea level rise. As sea level rise accelerates this Century, flooding is expected to considerably worsen — with the most damaging effects happening alongside the highest levels of possible future greenhouse gas emissions. The study also identified potentially compounding effects from possibly worsening Atlantic storms and heavier coastal rainfall events.

Ocean warming and increasing glacial outflows also have a potential to effect ocean overturning circulation in the upper middle latitudes. Of particular interest is the possible disruption of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) this Century. Recent unconfirmed scientific observation has already pointed to some impacts to AMOC due to warming during recent years. But the report notes that it is presently difficult to validate these observations. Disruption to AMOC would have a considerable impact on North Atlantic weather patterns. It would also reduce both ocean carbon and heat uptake due to a more stratified and less well mixed ocean system. The study identifies a weakening of AMOC of between 12 and 54 percent under worst-case greenhouse gas emissions scenarios.

As risks of ocean stratification mount, acidification of the world’s waters is rapidly increasing. Atmospheric carbon dioxide rising above 400 parts per million was found to worsen detrimental effects by increasing ocean acidity levels. The study found that the rate of ocean acidification increase was unparalleled in the past 66 million years at least. That higher rates of fossil fuel burning and greenhouse gas emissions would result in another doubling or more of ocean acidity by the end of this Century.

Heating, stratifying, and more acidic oceans are also steadily losing oxygen. The study finds that the amount of oxygen held in the oceans is falling coincident with warming. The study identifies a declining ocean oxygen content at intermediate depths and major losses in oxygen in inland seas, estuaries, along coasts, and in parts of the open ocean. Lower oxygen means more ocean dead zones and more toxic anaerobic microbial blooms. Overall ocean oxygen content is expected to fall by 3.5 percent under worst case warming and fossil fuel emissions scenarios by 2100.

Serious Risk of Unanticipated Changes

The level of evidence provided by the study that humans are changing the climate and that these changes are increasingly harmful is mountainous. And this base fact alone is reason enough for a climate change denying Trump Administration to try and bury its findings. But it is perhaps the study’s own admitted uncertainty over future risks that reveals how reckless Trump’s combined denial of climate change and doubling down on fossil fuel based emissions has ultimately become.

The study itself is based on physical model and consensus science findings. This lends weight to the evidence it has provided in that it is highly qualified. However, the study responsibly indicates the potential weak points of model based consensus studies. Models are notably less able to duplicate higher paleoclimate levels of warming — indicating an increased likelihood that rates of warming will be more intense than expected and a reduced likelihood that warming will be less intense than expected. The study also cautions that there is another limitation to the ultimate accuracy of model predictions in that models themselves are unable to capture what it calls critical threshold and compound events.

Compound events are described as multiple extreme climate change events occurring at the same time to generate an unanticipated level of harmful disruption. A good example of a compound event is extreme heat risking injury or loss of life, extreme drought harming crops and water supplies in the same region, and both coinciding with a severe or unprecedented wildfire outbreak. Critical threshold events occur when the climate system crosses a tipping point and then radically adjusts to a new climate state. A worrisome critical threshold event is crossing a tipping point in which significant carbon feedbacks from the Earth System occur — locking in more extreme warming and generating periods in which global temperatures more rapidly spike. Both of these kinds of events have the potential to produce consequences that are difficult or impossible to manage. And the chance of such catastrophic events occurring increases along with higher rates of fossil fuel burning and coinciding higher levels of warming.

The precautionary principle alone demands that we do our best to avoid increasing these uncertain risks even as we steer away from the much more certain harms like sea level rise and generally increasing extreme weather. The science has again given us a more clear, more refined, gift in the form of this very valuable provision of foresight. And yet the current U.S. executive leadership is bound and determined to obstinately ignore or it, cast doubt on it, and do everything possible to cloud the clear and priceless message being sent to us by an army of selfless and dedicated climate researchers.

Links:

Scientists Fear Trump Will Dismiss Blunt Climate Report

Climate Science Special Report

Images taken directly from the report

Hat tip to Greg

Hat tip to Wili

Smoke Blankets Western North America, 106 F Temps in Portland, Flash Northern Plains Drought Threatens U.S. Wheat Crop

The climate change related impacts from continued fossil fuel burning just keep on ramping up.

Last Thursday, the mercury struck 106 degrees Fahrenheit in Portland, Oregon. The reading, just one degree shy of the hottest temperature ever recorded for the city, came after the thermometer soared to the 103 F mark on Wednesday. The extreme heat prompted some locals to re-name the typically wet and cool city — ‘Hotlandia’ — even as a broader severe heatwave blanketed most of the U.S. West.

(Smoke covers large portions of the U.S. West following record heat in many locales. Image source: NASA Worldview.)

During the weekend, the heat shifted north and east — thrusting 90+ degree (F) temperatures into British Columbia where severe wildfires have been raging throughout the summer. As a result, fire intensity spiked once again and great plumes of smoke today blanketed hundreds of miles of western sky.

In total, more than 575,000 hectares have burned in British Columbia so far this year. This is about 6 six times the average rate of wildfire burning for a typically wet and cool region. An intensification of the fire regime that came on as temperatures warmed, climates changed, and indigenous plants found themselves thrust into conditions outside those they’re adapted to.

The extreme heat was brought on by the kind of combined Pacific Ocean warming and upper level high pressure ridge amplification that some researchers have linked to human-caused climate change. And the overall impacts of the system have been as outlandish as they are notable.

(Extreme heat blankets the U.S. on Thursday, August 3rd. Image source: The National Weather Service.)

Further east, the high plains have suffered from extraordinarily dry conditions throughout spring and summer. Since April, rainfall totals have been reduced by 50 percent or more. The drying began with the start of growing season and has continued on through early August. After a rapid intensification during recent weeks, 62 percent of North Dakota and 38 percent of Montana are now blanketed by severe drought conditions or worse.

The drought’s center mass is near the Missouri River Basin — a primary water shed for the northern plains states. Since April, these key regions have seen as little as one quarter the usual precipitation amount. This equals the driest growing season ever recorded for some locations. And overall conditions are about as bad as they have been at any time in the past 100 years.

The result has been the emergence of a very intense flash drought. One of a type that has become more common as atmospheric temperatures have increased and as evaporation from waters and soils has intensified. At Lodgepole Montana, the heat and drought were enough to ignite a 422 square mile wildfire. Covering an area 1/3 the size of Rhode Island, the fire is Montana’s largest blaze since 1910. The fire is now, thankfully, 98 percent contained. More worrisome, the massive blaze is now accompanied by 9 smaller sister fires throughout the state. And all before the peak of fire season.

(Flash drought — a new phenomenon brought on by human-forced climate change — emerges in Montana. Image source: The US Drought Monitor and Grist.)

But perhaps the worst of the drought-related damage has impacted the region’s wheat crops. And reports now indicate that fully half of the Northern Plains wheat crop is presently under threat. Overall current damage estimates for the Northern Plains drought alone are spiking above 1 billion dollars and states are now seeking emergency funding from a relief pool that the Trump Administration recently cut.

But regardless of Trump’s views on climate change or his related lack of preparedness, the damages and risks just continue mounting. Montana resident Sarah Swanson recently noted in Grist:

“The damage and the destruction is just unimaginable. It’s unlike anything we’ve seen in decades.”

Sadly, with atmospheric carbon levels in the range of 407 ppm CO2 and 492 ppm CO2e, and with fossil fuel burning still continuing, these kinds of devastating droughts, heatwaves, and fires will just keep on getting worse.

Links:

NASA Worldview

The US Drought Monitor

The National Weather Service

The National Interagency Fire Center

Portland Heatwave

Flash Drought Could Devastate Half the U.S. Wheat Harvest

Drought Spreads Across U.S. Plains

Western Heatwave Breaks Records Across Oregon and Washington

Canada’s Interagency Fire Center

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